🏀 Utah State vs. Arizona Prediction & Picks: March Madness Round 2 (March 22)
No. 1 Arizona will look to take care of business Sunday against No. 9 Utah State, with a spot in the Sweet 16 on the line.
My best Utah State vs. Arizona prediction for the 7:50 p.m. ET (truTV/March Madness Live) game at Viejas Arena in San Diego centers on Arizona's shooting defense stifling Utah State's normally sound offense. Arizona is favored by 12.5, and my March Madness predictions think that may not be enough.
🏀 Utah State vs. Arizona picks & odds: March Madness Round 2
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona -12.5 | -105 via DraftKings | 2u -> 1.9u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Over 154.5 | -110 via DraftKings | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Mason Falslev Under 15.5 points | -112 via bet365 | 1u -> 0.89u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: 3.7 units
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🏆 Who will win Utah State vs. Arizona?
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
I'm taking Arizona to win by 15 points, because Utah State struggles to defend the 3-point line, and while Utah State shoots better than 50% from the field, the Aggies are about to have a rough shooting night against the sixth-best shooting defense in the country.
Score prediction: Arizona 88, Utah State 73
💰 Utah State vs. Arizona prediction & best bet
Arizona -12.5 (-105)
Arizona only makes 5.9 3-pointers per game, but the Wildcats are shooting 36.3% from deep, which ranks 50th in the country. Utah State ranks 229th in 3-point defense, and in the first round, Villanova was 14-of-30 from long range.
Both teams shoot over 50%, but I don't see Utah State getting anywhere near that number. Opponents are making just 39% of their shots against Arizona, and the Wildcats rank 49th in 3-point defense. And don't expect second-chance points for Utah State, as the Aggies rank 179th in offensive rebounds per game, and Arizona is second in total rebounds.
🔥 Best Utah State vs. Arizona player prop bet
Mason Falslev Under 15.5 points (-112)
Falslev scored 22 points in the first round, but I'm shocked this number is around his season average of 16.2 points per game. Falslev has failed to make a single 3-pointer in three consecutive games, despite averaging 1.3 makes per game this season. Even if he makes one, I don't expect more than that against a 3-point defense allowing just 31.4%.
Falslev is shooting 52.3% from the floor, but as I've already highlighted, Arizona is one of the best shooting defenses in the nation. I may have taken Falslev to overcome this matchup if he was a high-volume shooter, but he only averages 11.3 field goal attempts per game.
And finally, Falslev doesn't get to the free throw line very much, averaging just 4.1 attempts per game, so he won't be able to make up for an off-shooting night from the charity stripe.
🚀 Utah State vs. Arizona same-game parlay
Utah State is going to struggle from the field, something the Aggies have rarely done this season. Yet, while that will lead to Arizona covering and Falslev going below his season average, it won't prevent the game from going Over. Arizona is so sound offensively that I expect the Wildcats to push the pace just enough to hit this three-leg parlay at bet365.
💵 Utah State vs. Arizona SGP picks
- Arizona -12
- Over 154.5
- Mason Falslev Under 15.5 points
Best odds: +590 via Sportsbook (1u -> 5.9u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-34 | +34.28 units ✅ | 42.1% ✅ |
| Game picks | 20-15 | +16.16 units ✅ | +33.3% ✅ |
| Player props | 4-8 | -7.72 units ❌ | -37.7% ❌ |
| Parlays | 4-11 | +25.84 units ✅ | +215.3% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Utah State vs. Arizona: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
Utah State shoots well from the floor, but the Aggies were just 2-of-16 from 3-point range in the first round, and if they shoot that poorly from deep again, they won't be able to keep up with Arizona. Therefore, I'll risk two units on Arizona -12.5, but I'm only risking one on the Over, just in case this ends up being even more of a blowout than I expect. Finally, I'll risk just one unit on Falslev's Under. I like the play, but he could do a lot of scoring in garbage time.
Visit our March Madness betting trends page for more information about this game.
📊 Live Utah State vs. Arizona odds: March Madness Round 2
The spread hasn't moved at all, but I expect the number to increase before tipoff. Arizona has been dominant this season, and this is a very good matchup for the Wildcats. I only have them winning by 15, but I wouldn't be afraid to play this at 13.5. The total has dropped from 155.5 to 154.5 at some major sportsbooks, but I don't expect it to fall much further, as both offenses are very good.
📈 Utah State vs. Arizona betting trends
| Utah State | Statistic | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| 29-6 | Record | 32-2 |
| 16-18 | ATS record | 20-14-1 |
| 20-14 | O/U record | 18-17 |
| 29th | KenPom ranking | 1st |
| 122.7 (27th) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 127.8 (5th) |
| 101.3 (43rd) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 90.0 (3rd) |
📺 How to watch Utah State vs. Arizona: March Madness Round 2
- Date: Sunday, March 22
- Tipoff: 7:50 p.m. ET
- Location: Viejas Arena (San Diego)
- TV: truTV
- Streaming: March Madness Live
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