UCLA vs. California Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Betting Preview for Nov. 25

With much of the buzz in college basketball surrounding the Players Era Festival early in the week, I focus on a hidden gem between in-state rivals with my UCLA vs. California prediction for the Empire Classic. 

The battle between these two Golden State rivals is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET from the Chase Center in San Francisco (ESPN), with No. 18 UCLA the 8.5-point betting favorite.

This matchups is a part of Feast Week, and you can stay on top of all the hoops action this Thanksgiving with our college basketball Feast Week guide.

✅ UCLA vs. California prediction & expert picks

See all of our experts' college basketball picks this week.

🏀 UCLA vs. California preview & score prediction

UCLA’s lone loss is a respectable four-point loss to Arizona, which now looks like one of the best teams in the country after also beating the last two national champions (Florida and UConn). But this short line piques my interest in backing the Golden Bears in their third year under offensive visionary head coach Mark Madsen.

California’s shooting never leaves it out of a game 

The Golden Bears have scored 90-plus points in half of their six games, thanks to an offense that ranks in the top 40 in effective field goal percentage. 

California trailed by as many as 25 points in its lone loss on the road at Kansas State, but clawed its way back by shooting 56.5% overall, out-rebounding the Wildcats, and forcing 17 turnovers.

The Golden Bears had all five starters averaging in double figures through the first five games of the year. They recorded 90-plus points in back-to-back games for the first time since 2014, and are coming off making 15 3-pointers in a win over Sacramento State, one shy of tying a program record.

KenPom projects this as a five-point game, so I am gladly taking the extra 3.5 points worth of value at bet365 as a confident four-star play. If California covers, my $10 wager through bet365’s -110 price at 52.38% implied odds would net $9.09 in profits.

Score prediction: UCLA 76, California 70

🆚 UCLA vs. California matchup to watch

Donovan Dent vs. California's transition defense

UCLA’s closer-than-expected six-point victory in the season opener against Eastern Washington was especially shocking, considering the Bruins had 20 transition possessions. The game was tight in large part because Eastern Washington scored 32 points at the rim, but was bailed out by a defense that produced a 23% turnover rate, spiking to 50% off of ball screens.

California has committed 23 total turnovers in two games since coughing it up 17 times in a loss to Kansas State, but that was against much weaker competition.

If the Golden Bears become turnover-prone again, that should lead to easy buckets for Donovan Dent and a UCLA team that selectively runs, despite playing at a typically slow tempo.

Dent has a top 30 assist rate and has only exceeded this projected point total in the season opener, but he should be called upon to do much of the scoring in this game.

Best prop bet: Donovan Dent Over 15.5 points (-140 via bet365)

📊 UCLA vs. California odds

See live college basketball odds for every game.

📺 How to watch UCLA vs. California

• Date: Tuesday, Nov. 25
• Tipoff: 10 p.m. ET
• Location: Chase Center (San Francisco)
• TV: ESPN