🏀 Troy vs. Nebraska Prediction: NCAA First Round Odds & Picks (March 19)

The No. 13 vs. No. 4 seed matchup from the South Region pits Sun Belt champion Troy against Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are 13.5-point betting favorite, and the game from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City starts at 12:40 p.m. ET on Thursday, airing on truTV. 

My Troy vs. Nebraska prediction backs the Trojans to rely on last year's NCAA Tournament experience to stay within this big number. I also expect that effort to mean a poor shooting day from the Cornhuskers' best 3-point shooter, Pryce Sandfort.

🏀 Troy vs. Nebraska picks & odds: NCAA First Round (March 19)

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.08 units

💰 Troy vs. Nebraska prediction & best bet

Troy +13.5 (-110)

Troy returned 44% of the minutes from a team that lost by 19 in the NCAA Tournament to Kentucky. But those Wildcats fared much better than this year’s Nebraska squad in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency (10th vs. 55th) and 3-point shooting (24th vs. 103rd).

The Trojans have played with fire, as their seven game-tying or go-ahead baskets in the final 30 seconds of games were a D-I high. While they didn’t vault to the top of the Sun Belt until the very last day, they should prove a tough out as a battle-tested team from a competitive conference.

Score prediction: Nebraska 75 - Troy 65

🔥 Best Troy vs. Nebraska player prop bet

Pryce Sandfort Under 3.5 3-pointers made (-145)

Troy played a quietly strong non-conference schedule, including SoCon champion Furman, San Diego State, USC, MAC runner-up Toledo, and UAB. None of those teams made 10 or more threes against the Trojans, and that includes a double-overtime game against the Aztecs and a triple overtime game against USC.

Troy ranks 43rd in 3-point percentage defense, which is why it allows just 29.4% of opponents’ points from beyond the arc. Comparatively, the Trojans are a sieve defensively inside, allowing the 60th-highest percentage of opponents’ points from 2-point range.

Pryce Sandfort isn’t bashful about hoisting 3-point attempts, as he has 10-plus such shots in three of the last six games. But he has also stayed under this projected total three times in that span, and I trust he will be the focal point of the Trojans defense.

🚀 Troy vs. Nebraska same-game parlay

My four-star best bet of Troy covering the spread is heavily predicated on it being able to limit Pryce Sandfort's 3-point prowess. But instead of backing the full game Under, I like the Over to cash if Nebraska starts to work the paint more given Troy's weak interior defense.

💡 How I'm betting Troy vs. Nebraska

With my Troy point spread and Sandfort player prop wagers being four-star plays compared to just two stars of confidence in the Over, I am only making the O/U a half-unit play.

Both Troy and Nebraska are profitable to the Under, including going 18-8 when Nebraska is favored, so consider it a contrarian play.

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.

📊 Live Troy vs. Nebraska odds: NCAA First Round

The only early movement on the point spread as of Monday morning saw Caesars ticking up from -13 to -13.5 to align with the rest of the market.

By comparison, the total saw a lot more movement, coming down a full point at several best sports betting sites that opened at 138 all the way down to 137. It has since settled at 137.5 at every sports book except for FanDuel, which remained in isolation a point higher at 138.5.

📈 Troy vs. Nebraska betting trends

📺 How to watch Troy vs. Nebraska: NCAA First Round

• Date: Thursday, March 19
• Tipoff: 12:40 p.m. ET
• Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City)
• TV: truTV
• Streaming: Max