🏀 Texas vs. Purdue Prediction & Picks: March Madness Sweet 16 (March 26)

Jokes have been made about Texas' "Cinderella" March Madness run as a No. 11 seed, but the fact is that it's the only double-digit seed to reach the Sweet 16. It looks to advance further when facing No. 2 seed Purdue at the SAP Center at San Jose on Thursday night.

The Boilermakers are anywhere from the 6.5 to 7.5-point betting favorite, and my Texas vs. Purdue prediction expects the Boilermakers to expose the Longhorns' defensive weaknesses en route to a cover and a big day from Trey Kaufman-Renn.

It's all part of our March Madness predictions. 

🏀 Texas vs. Purdue picks & odds: March Madness Sweet 16

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🏆 Who will win Texas vs. Purdue?

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Texas had lost five of six games before its three-game winning streak clinched a spot in the Sweet 16. But the Longhorns are just 2-5 SU against teams ranked in the KenPom top-20 this season, and I expect Purdue's experience will be too much for their tired legs. 

Score prediction: Purdue 80, Texas 71

💰 Texas vs. Purdue prediction & best bet

Purdue -6.5 (-122)

Purdue is D-I’s most efficient offense and figures to have several advantages over a Longhorns defense that allowed 88.8 points per game in losses during a late-season 1-5 stretch.

I’m backing the Boilermakers confidently because of a defense that’s coming off one of its most underrated performances of the season. Miami entered the Round of 32 ranked in the 99th percentile in unguarded catch-and-shoot rate, but Purdue held it to just 26.3% from 3-point range on a limited 19 attempts.

It’s also hard to overlook that Purdue returned 86% of its scoring from last year’s Sweet 16 team.

🔥 Best Texas vs. Purdue player prop bet

Trey Kaufman-Renn Over 19.5 points (-112)

Texas’ defense does an outstanding job of running teams off the 3-point line, ranking in the top 20 in lowest 3-point attempt rate allowed. Because of that, opponents are scoring just 26.6% of their points from 3-point range against the Longhorns (329th-most).

If Purdue is having difficulty getting Fletcher Loyer going from 3-point range (he was shooting 47% from beyond the arc since the start of February entering the Round of 32), the Boilermakers’ offensive attack should feature plenty of Braden Smith feeding Trey Kaufman-Renn on short pick-and-rolls.

Texas faced a plethora of outstanding power forward and centers in non-conference play, including Duke’s Cameron Boozer, N.C. State’s Ven-Allen Lubin, Virginia’s Thijs De Ridder, UConn’s Tarris Reed, and the latest was Gonzaga’s Graham Ike. Those five averaged 19 points per game against Texas, with only one scoring fewer than 15.

🚀 Texas vs. Purdue same-game parlay

I am sacrificing some value on Purdue's point spread by making this same-game parlay wager at bet365.

But seeing as I would play the Boilermakers up to -8.5, I love the way these three legs of the parlay play off each other, as a big game from Kaufman-Renn should have both Purdue cover and the Over to cash.

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💡 How I'm betting Texas vs. Purdue: March Madness strategy

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

After two straight covers, Purdue head coach Matt Painter is now 18-8 ATS as a favorite in the NCAA Tournament. That gives me confidence backing Purdue's point spread as the best four-star wager.

But I'm slightly more worried that I'm on the public side with the Over given how high-scoring each team's offense is.

I'm only making the Over a half-unit play. I could find myself getting interested in a live Under bet if both teams start hot (the Boilermakers didn't miss consecutive field goals for the first 10 minutes against Miami), as Purdue will eventually slow the tempo.

📊 Live Texas vs. Purdue odds: March Madness Sweet 16

I was fortunate to get on Purdue -6.5 early at FanDuel, as it was the only one of the best sports betting sites that opened at that number. But even within the first couple hours of the line opening on Sunday afternoon, any sportsbook that opened at -7 or -7.5 was bet up to -8 quickly, with a couple reaching as high as -8.5.

At some point, I would expect buyback on Texas, especially if Purdue gets a bad injury update about C.J. Cox, who left Sunday's win with a knee injury.

The total was also on the rise, as the low end of the market of 147.5 had bet been up as high as 1.5 points to an O/U of 149.

📈 Texas vs. Purdue betting trends

📺 How to watch Texas vs. Purdue: March Madness Sweet 16

• Date: Thursday, March 26
• Tipoff: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Location: SAP Center at San Jose (San Jose, Calif.)
• TV: CBS
• Streaming: Paramount+