🏀 Texas vs. Purdue Prediction Today: March Madness Sweet 16 Odds & Picks

No. 11 Texas is the last double-digit seed left in March Madness, but its Cinderella story faces its toughest challenge yet - against No. 2 Purdue in the Sweet 16 today. Tipoff from SAP Center in San Jose, Calif., is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (CBS), with Purdue listed as a 7.5-point betting favorite.

My Texas vs. Purdue prediction today expects the Boilermakers to halt the Longhorns' streak, while a Trey Kaufman-Renn player prop and a +590 same-game parlay complete my Sweet 16 picks for tonight’s matchup. Our March Madness predictions for this matchup feature two four-star plays.

🏀 Texas vs. Purdue picks & odds: March Madness Sweet 16

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.17 units

🏆 Who will win Texas vs. Purdue?

Texas had lost five of six games before its three-game winning streak clinched a spot in the Sweet 16. But the Longhorns are just 2-5 SU against teams ranked in the KenPom top-20 this season, and I expect Purdue's experience will be too much for their tired legs. 

Score prediction: Purdue 80, Texas 71

💰 Texas vs. Purdue prediction & best bet

See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Purdue -6.5 (-122)

Purdue is D-I’s most efficient offense and figures to have several advantages over a Longhorns defense that allowed 88.8 points per game (PPG) in losses during a late-season 1-5 stretch.

I’m backing the Boilermakers confidently because of a defense that’s coming off one of its most underrated performances of the season. Miami entered the Round of 32 ranked in the 99th percentile in unguarded catch-and-shoot rate, but Purdue held it to just 26.3% from 3-point range on a limited 19 attempts.

It’s also hard to overlook that Purdue returned 86% of its scoring from last year’s Sweet 16 team.

🔥 Best Texas vs. Purdue player prop bet

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

Trey Kaufman-Renn Over 19.5 points (-112)

Texas’ defense does an outstanding job of running teams off the 3-point line, ranking in the top 20 in lowest 3-point attempt rate allowed. Because of that, opponents are scoring just 26.6% of their points from 3-point range against the Longhorns (329th-most).

If Purdue is having difficulty getting Fletcher Loyer going from 3-point range (he was shooting 47% from beyond the arc since the start of February entering the Round of 32), the Boilermakers’ offensive attack should feature plenty of Braden Smith feeding Trey Kaufman-Renn on short pick-and-rolls.

Texas faced a plethora of outstanding power forward and centers in non-conference play, including Duke’s Cameron Boozer, N.C. State’s Ven-Allen Lubin, Virginia’s Thijs De Ridder, UConn’s Tarris Reed, and the latest was Gonzaga’s Graham Ike. Those five averaged 19 PPG against Texas, with only one scoring fewer than 15.

And if this doesn't quench your thirst for player props, I offer another trio in my Texas vs. Purdue player props.

🚀 Texas vs. Purdue same-game parlay

I am sacrificing some value on Purdue's point spread by making this same-game parlay wager at bet365.

But seeing as I would play the Boilermakers up to -8.5, I love the way these three legs of the parlay play off each other, as a big game from Kaufman-Renn should have both Purdue cover and the Over to cash.

💵 My betting record for college basketball

All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.

💡 How I'm betting Texas vs. Purdue: March Madness strategy

After two straight covers, Purdue head coach Matt Painter is now 18-8 ATS as a favorite in the NCAA Tournament. That gives me confidence backing Purdue's point spread as the best four-star wager.

But I'm slightly more worried that I'm on the public side with the Over given how high-scoring each team's offense is.

I'm only making the Over a half-unit play. I could find myself getting interested in a live Under bet if both teams start hot (the Boilermakers didn't miss consecutive field goals for the first 10 minutes against Miami), as Purdue will eventually slow the tempo.

📊 Live Texas vs. Purdue odds: March Madness Sweet 16

Purdue opened as low as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday but was quickly bet up to -8.5 at some shops within hours. The line has since settled at -7.5 across our best sports betting sites heading into tonight's tip - I was fortunate to grab -6.5 early at FanDuel before it moved.

Keep an eye on the C.J. Cox situation. The Purdue guard left Sunday's win over Miami with a knee injury, and a negative update could push this line back toward -7 or lower with late Texas buyback. The total has followed a similar arc, rising from 147.5 at open to as high as 149 before falling back to 147.5 today.

🚑 Texas vs. Purdue injuries

Last updated at 4:10 p.m. ET.

Texas

• Jordan Pope (ankle) - questionable
• Lassina Traore (knee) - out

Purdue

• C.J. Cox (knee) - questionable

The biggest injury news to watch in this game is whether Jordan Pope suits up. Pope averages 13.1 PPG for Texas and scored 17 against Gonzaga in the Second Round. Meanwhile, Cox averages 8.5 PPG for Purdue.

💵 Texas vs. Purdue odds movement & betting splits

Latest Texas vs. Purdue odds movement and betting splits via BetMGM.

The spread has moved from Purdue -6.5 at open to -7.5 across the market, but the ticket split is nearly even at 52-48 in favor of Texas. The sharp action appears to be on Purdue's side despite the public leaning toward the points.

The total tells a clearer story: 73% of bets are on the Over after the number opened at 147.5 and ticked as high as 149 at some shops before settling back. Meanwhile, 83% of moneyline tickets are landing on Purdue, the heaviest favorite split of any Sweet 16 game.

📈 Texas vs. Purdue betting trends

📺 How to watch Texas vs. Purdue: March Madness Sweet 16

• Date: Thursday, March 26
• Tipoff: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Location: SAP Center at San Jose (San Jose, Calif.)
• TV: CBS
• Streaming: Paramount+

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