🏀 Texas vs. NC State Prediction & Picks: March Madness First Four (March 17)

We get a rare rematch in Tuesday's First Four battle between Texas and NC State at 9:15 p.m. ET at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio, on truTV.

These two teams met in the Maui Invitational, with Texas securing a 102-97 win. That wasn't entirely due to the soft rims, either, as both teams are known for their defensive lapses. That's why my Texas vs. NC State prediction is rushing to back the Over to help kick off our March Madness predictions for the week.

I'm also siding with a the Wolfpack to get revenge in a true coin-flip contest.

🏀 Texas vs. NC State picks & odds: March Madness First Four

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.6 units | Max profit: 2.37 units

🏆 Who will win Texas vs. NC State?

See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

I'm taking NC State to win by three points in Tuesday's First Four matchup, earning its first NCAA tournament berth since 2024 and third such appearance in the past eight seasons.

If we get the best (or at least most desperate) version of both teams, the Wolfpack's ceiling is higher. They ranked as high as 19th on KenPom earlier this year, while the Longhorns were outside the top 30 for much of the campaign.

Score prediction: NC State 83, Texas 80

💰 Texas vs. NC State prediction & best bet

Over 158.5 (-110)

The soft rims might have played a part in the 199 total points scored during their meeting on Nov. 26, but both teams have paths to offensive production in this matchup.

For NC State, this is a squad that can get extremely hot from distance. The Wolfpack rank 10th in 3-point shooting, which bodes well against the Longhorns' 299th-ranked 3-point defense.

As for the Longhorns, they get to the line at the fourth-highest clip in the country. NC State ranks 226th in the nation in free-throw rate allowed.

All signs point toward another shootout on Tuesday. BetMGM offers the best price on the Over, but I'd play this up to 160 if needed.

🔥 Best Texas vs. NC State player prop bet

Darrion Williams Over 11.5 points (-120)

Due to foul trouble, NC State forward Darrion Williams only finished with 10 points on as many shots in the first meeting with Texas. But he's someone who can burn the Longhorns' defense due to his ability to step out and hit the long ball. He's hit multiple 3-pointers in 20 of his 32 games.

For me, this is more of a usage-play bet than anything else. Williams is taking a team-high 26.8% of the team's shots, including 28.6% in conference play. If he gets that kind of volume in a high-scoring matchup, I love his chances of scoring at least 12 points. Williams has cleared this scoring line in 18 of his 32 games this year.

This line is as high as 13.5 at bet365, indicating the value at FanDuel. I'd only play the Over at -125 or better due to the risk of Williams getting in foul trouble again.

🚀 Texas vs. NC State same-game parlay

I'm projecting NC State to get revenge in Tuesday's rematch with Texas, but I wouldn't be surprised if the First Four battle turns into another track meet.

With that in mind, I like the idea of backing Darrion Williams to play his part as a stretch big. My same-game parlay is counting on all that in Tuesday's Texas vs. NC State First Four matchup.

💡 How I'm betting Texas vs. NC State: March Madness strategy

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

I wouldn't normally allocate ~2.5 units to a First Four game, as I'm generally spending this week handicapping the Round 1 games. However, this should be the best First Four matchup, and it's worth a proper deep dive. Plus, I feel great about the process that led to these edges.

Neither team is in great form, which is why each school is in the First Four after holding larger aspirations earlier in the year. Texas has lost three straight and five of its previous six contests, while NC State has dropped seven of its last nine over the past month.

A win on Tuesday would be a chance for someone to right the ship and potentially start a little March run, so don't be surprised if we get some quality basketball in this one.

📊 Live Texas vs. NC State odds: March Madness First Four

The spread hasn't budged since NC State opened as a slight favorite, but the total has dropped a point from the opening line. Both markets could be more evenly split than most March Madness contests, as this is a true tossup of a game.

Still, I prefer NC State and the Over after digging into this matchup.

📈 Texas vs. NC State betting trends

📺 How to watch Texas vs. NC State: March Madness First Four

• Date: Tuesday, March 17
• Tipoff: 9:15 p.m. ET
• Location: University of Dayton Arena (Dayton, Ohio)
• TV: truTV
• Streaming: truTV App