🏀 Texas vs. BYU Prediction & Parlay Today: March Madness Round 1 Odds & Picks
AJ Dybantsa and No. 6 BYU are waiting for No. 11 Texas tonight in Portland, and nobody wants to bet against the projected No. 1 pick. But that's exactly where the value is in my Texas vs. BYU prediction and parlay tonight at 7:25 p.m. ET at Moda Center (TBS).
The Cougars have gone 4-5 since Richie Saunders' season-ending injury, and as part of our March Madness predictions, I'm cautiously raising my hand on the contrarian side.
🏀 Texas vs. BYU picks & odds: March Madness Round 1
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas +2.5 | -110 via BetMGM | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Over 157.5 | -110 via BetMGM | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Matas Vokietaitis Over 14.5 points | -112 via bet365 | 0.5u -> 0.45u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.27 units
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🏆 Who will win Texas vs. BYU?
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
In a game that could come down to the very end, I predict Texas to pull off the upset and win by one in its Round 1 matchup against BYU. The Cougars have been a different team since Richie Saunders suffered a season-ending injury on Feb. 14. They finished the year with a 4-5 record.
Score prediction: Texas 81, BYU 80
💡 Situational ATS trends for Texas vs. BYU
- The Longhorns have been incredibly reliable in this spot lately, going 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog.
- Texas: 16-15 ATS | 19-12 O/U
- KenPom ranking: No. 37 (+19.03 AdjEM)
- BYU: 15-19 ATS | 18-16 O/U
- KenPom ranking: No. 23 (+23.25 AdjEM)
💰 Texas vs. BYU prediction & best bet
Over 157.5 (-110)
I'm waiting for a +3 (or even +3.5) to pop before tipoff, which would make the Longhorns' spread a four-star play. As of Wednesday morning, 75% of bets were on BYU to cover as a favorite.
The reality is, the Cougars don't deserve this much respect in the market. According to Bart Torvik's ratings, the Cougars rank 46th in the country since Feb. 15. They are 119th in adjusted defensive efficiency over that span. For comparison, BYU was No. 26 overall and 61st on defense before Saunders went down.
At the same time, Texas' drop-coverage defense could get shredded by Dybantsa and Co.
I see multiple paths to an Over in a game that KenPom projects 165 total points to be scored.
🔥 Best Texas vs. BYU player prop bet
Matas Vokietaitis Over 14.5 points (-112)
Longhorns center Matas Vokietaitis, who stands 7-feet tall, could have a favorable offensive matchup against BYU in Round 1. The Cougars don't have a player taller than 6-foot-10 on their roster.
Vokietaitis also has the third-highest free-throw rate in the country during his first season with Texas since transferring from Florida Atlantic. He went to the line 12 times in a First Four victory over N.C. State, scoring 15 points. He's reached 15-plus points in six of his previous 10 games.
This line is painted 14.5 across the board, but bet365 offers the best odds at -112.
🚀 Texas vs. BYU same-game parlay
BetMGM provides the best odds on both the Over and the spread, which is why I've set my Texas vs. BYU parlay there. The same-game parlay pays +360, and all three legs are closely correlated.
💵 Texas vs. BYU SGP picks
- Texas +2.5
- Over 157.5
- Matas Vokietaitis Over 14.5 points
Best odds: +350 via FanDuel (1u -> 3.6u)
💵 Latest Texas vs. BYU odds & betting splits
| Market | Texas | BYU | Betting splits |
|---|---|---|---|
| ↔️ Spread | +2.5 (-110) | -2.5 (-110) | 34% Texas / 66% BYU |
| ↕️ Total (O/U) | O 157.5 (-115) | U 157.5 (-105) | 55% Over / 45% Under |
| 💵 Moneyline | +118 | -145 | 29% Texas / 71% BYU |
BYU is drawing two-thirds of spread bets and 71% of moneyline money ahead of tonight's tipoff, making Texas one of the more contrarian plays of the first round. The Over is the slight lean on the total at 55%, consistent with KenPom's projection of 165 combined points in this matchup. Monitoring live betting splits and line movement is one of the best ways to find value before locking in your March Madness picks tonight.
💡 How I'm betting Texas vs. BYU: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
Nobody wants to bet against Dybantsa in March Madness, but I think that's why there is extra value in fading a Cougars team that hasn't looked right for the past month.
Don't get me wrong, Texas doesn't come in with great form, either. But Sean Miller's Longhorns can put up points as the 18th-best offensive team in the nation.
I like the Over a lot in this game.
📊 Live Texas vs. BYU odds: March Madness Round 1
BYU is a 2.5-point favorite after opening -1.5 on Tuesday night. There is a reasonable chance that this line moves further in the Cougars' direction, as 75% of the bets at DraftKings are on the favorite.
As for the total, the line has dropped from 159.5 to 157.5. I don't know if the total will drop much further, but it's created a buy point on the Over, given the make-up of these two teams.
📈 Texas vs. BYU betting trends
| Texas | Statistic | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| 19-14 | Record | 23-11 |
| 17-15 | ATS record | 15-19 |
| 19-13 | O/U record | 18-16 |
| 37th | KenPom ranking | 23rd |
| 124.2 (18th) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 125.4 (10th) |
| 105.0 (95th) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 102.2 (57th) |
📺 How to watch Texas vs. BYU: March Madness Round 1
- Date: Thursday, March 19
- Tipoff: 7:25 p.m. ET
- Location: Moda Center (Portland, Ore.)
- TV: TBS
- Streaming: TBS App
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