🏀 Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Prediction: SEC Tournament Quarterfinal Odds & Picks (March 13)
Two in-state rivals meet for the second time in six days as No. 5 seed Tennessee faces No. 4 seed Vanderbilt at 3:30 p.m. ET today in an SEC Tournament quarterfinal matchup. Vanderbilt is a 1.5-point betting favorite ahead of tipoff from Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn., airing on ESPN.
My Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt prediction recognizes that the Commodores won 86-82 at Tennessee last Saturday, and now have the advantage of an extra day's rest while the Volunteers battled Auburn yesterday. But I am still backing Tennessee, which is now at full strength with the return of stud freshman Nate Ament.
Stay atop all today's action with Rob Paul's college basketball conference tournament guide.
🏀 Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt picks & odds: SEC Tournament Quarterfinal (March 13)
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| ML/ATS pick | Tennessee ML (-102 via FanDuel) | 1u -> 0.98u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| O/U pick | Under 146.5 (-110 via FanDuel) | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Player prop pick | Devin McGlockton Under 6.5 rebounds (-105 via BetMGM) | 1u -> 0.95u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.84 units
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💰 Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt prediction & best bet
Tennessee ML (-102)
Entering the first meeting, a Tennessee 69-65 road victory, Vanderbilt center Jalen Washington was averaging five fouls committed per 40 minutes played. Its lack of interior depth when he gets in foul trouble is a big reason Vanderbilt was allowing a 59% success rate at the rim, combined with a bottom-30 defensive rebounding rate.
Despite Tennessee missing JP Estrella in the first game, the Volunteers still outscored the Commodores 40 to 22 in the paint, and owned a plus-15% offensive rebounding percentage. And per ESPN’s Net Points formula, Tennessee lost five points to 3-point shooting luck in that contest.
Score prediction: Tennessee 74 - Vanderbilt 71
🔥 Best Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt player prop bet
Devin McGlockton Under 6.5 rebounds (-105)
Despite losing the regular season finale to Vanderbilt, Tennessee outrebounded the Commodores by nine, even without Nate Ament and his team-leading 6.5 rebounds per game.
Entering that matchup, Tennessee owned a plus-17.6 rebounding margin in SEC play per 100 possessions, compared to Vanderbilt’s paltry minus-3.1 margin.
Commodores center Devin McGlockton had just four rebounds in that latest road win, three of which came on the offensive glass.
This would be a five-star wager if McGlockton didn’t own top-14 offensive and defensive rebounding rates in SEC play. But he has only surpassed this projected total in two of the last five games, which makes this a great value play in one of the SEC’s worst mismatches between two opponents on the backboards.
🏀 Rebound props
McGlockton isn't the only rebound prop I'm targeting today, as I like a play from Kentucky vs. Florida that I break down in my college basketball predictions today.
🚀 Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt same-game parlay
Tennessee and Vanderbilt split two regular season meetings, but the Volunteers get the edge in the rubber match with a completely healthy roster for the first time in this rivalry. And while Vanderbilt is a profitable 16-14 to the Over this year, the Under cashed in 55.6% of its SEC games.
💵 Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt SGP picks
- Tennessee ML (-102)
- Under 146.5 (-110)
- Devin McGlockton Under 6.5 rebounds (-115)
Best odds: +607 via FanDuel (1u -> 6.07u)
💡 How I'm betting Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.
No disrespect to the job Mark Byington has done as Vanderbilt head coach (and James Madison before that), but he doesn't have the March resume that Rick Barnes does.
I will be looking to double down on Tennessee if it falls behind early, just as it did when it trailed Auburn by 11 points before cruising to a 10-point victory. But if the live spread ever reaches Volunteers +4.5 or higher, I would likely grab the points and adding that to my pre-game moneyline wager.
📊 Live Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt odds: SEC Tournament Quarterfinal
After Tennessee opened as a 1.5-point favorite at most of our best sports betting sites, this line jumped the fence to Vanderbilt being favored. It will be interesting to see if that line movement was the result of some sharps figuring Nate Ament will be on some sort of minutes restriction after he played 32 minutes yesterday.
Sharp action is siding with the Under, as the total has lowered from a high of 147.5 overnight despite 51% of the early wagers backing the Over.
📈 Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt betting trends
| Tennessee | Statistic | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| 22-10 | W-L record | 24-7 |
| 14-18 | ATS record | 16-14 |
| 16-16 | O/U record | 16-14 |
| 2-3 | Last 5 games | 3-2 |
📺 How to watch Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt: SEC Tournament Quarterfinal
- Date: Friday, March 13
- Tipoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Bridgestone Arena (Nashville, Tenn.)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: ESPN+
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