Tennessee vs. Houston Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Betting Preview for Nov. 25

My Tennessee vs. Houston prediction breaks down what is arguably the most anticipated game of today's Players Era Festival slate. No. 3 Houston is a 2.5-point betting favorite over No. 17 Tennessee, with this game tipping off from MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas at 6 p.m. ET (TNT). 

Houston is one of the shortest favorites to win the national title, but I expect Tennessee will come out hungry after last year’s embarrassing NCAA Tournament loss to the Cougars and stay within the number.

These matchups are a part of Feast Week, and you can stay on top of all the hoops action this Thanksgiving with our college basketball Feast Week guide.

✅ Tennessee vs. Houston prediction & expert picks

See all of our experts' college basketball picks this week.

🏀 Tennessee vs. Houston preview & score prediction

Houston earned a trip to the Final Four last year after dismantling Tennessee 69-50 in the Elite Eight, a game which the Volunteers never led. But Tennessee also brought back just over 20% of the minutes from last year’s team, which makes its scouting job against a more familiar Cougars roster a much easier task.

The Volunteers can rely on depth

With these teams playing on back-to-back days, fresh legs will be just as important as X’s and O’s. Tennessee has the advantage in that metric, ranking 23rd in bench minutes entering the tournament, while Houston’s 30.3% production from its bench ranked 250th.

The Volunteers’ depth was restored with the return of JP Estrella yesterday, who has the highest on/off efficiency margin split on the team. They also benefit from the earliest tip in yesterday’s event, maximizing their rest before this game.

Tennessee’s roster is much bigger than last year’s, and it has used that size to bully opponents to the nation’s top offensive rebounding rate (49.7%) entering Monday. 

Houston, meanwhile, has deployed some highly questionable shot selection, which will tend to happen when playing at the country’s second-slowest pace, and ranking outside the top 210 in average offensive possession length. 

This line is down one point from yesterday’s lookahead line of +3.5, but there is still plenty of value in the Volunteers. If they cover the spread, my $10 wager through Caesars’ -110 price at 52.38% implied odds would net $9.09 in profits.

Score prediction: Houston 67, Tennessee 66

🆚 Tennessee vs. Houston matchup to watch

Houston offense vs. Tennessee defense

Despite Houston scoring 69 points in last year’s Elite Eight win, it also made just 46.3% of its 2-point shots. That is concerning considering this year’s Volunteers team is better at rim protection, allowing the seventh-lowest near-proximity percentage, per Haslametrics. 

Houston’s offense has been heavily reliant on jump shooting, ranking 16th-lowest offensively in near-proximity rates. That is a big reason it also entered the tournament getting to the free throw line at the third-lowest rate in the country. 

The Cougars have been held to 67 or fewer points in regulation twice this year, and Tennessee has the personnel to hold them to that again. 

Also, if Unders are your thing, I have my favorite one for the day in my college basketball best bets today.

Best prop bet: Houston team total Under 68.5 (-108 via FanDuel)

📊 Tennessee vs. Houston odds

See live college basketball odds for every game.

📺 How to watch Tennessee vs. Houston

• Date: Tuesday, Nov. 25
• Tipoff: 6 p.m. ET
• Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena (Las Vegas)
• TV: TNT