🏀 TCU vs. Ohio State Prediction & Picks: March Madness Round 1 (March 19)

Round 1 of the 2026 NCAA tournament will get underway with a showdown between No. 8 Ohio State and No. 9 TCU on Thursday. Tipoff from Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, S.C. is set for 12:15 p.m. ET (CBS).

If you are itching to have action on the first March Madness matchup, my TCU vs. Ohio State prediction is here to help. With Ohio State listed as a 2.5-point betting favorite, I'm comfortable backing the Buckeyes as part of our March Madness predictions.

🏀 TCU vs. Ohio State picks & odds: March Madness Round 1

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.28 units

🏆 Who will win TCU vs. Ohio State?

See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

I predict Ohio State to defeat TCU by four points in what should be an exciting game to start Round 1 of this year's tourney. Ohio State has hit its stride at the opportune time, winning three of its final four games and playing its most efficient offense of the season. I believe in the Buckeyes' recent form and the fact that they have the best player (Bruce Thornton) in this game.

Score prediction: Ohio State 77, TCU 73

💰 TCU vs. Ohio State prediction & best bet

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

Ohio State moneyline (-140)

It's telling that Bart Torvik's projections favor Ohio State by 4.9 points (76-71). That's not typically the level of gap you see in games between the No. 8 and No. 9 seeds.

Based on adjusted offensive efficiency metrics, Ohio State has recorded four of its six best offensive games of the season since the calendar flipped to March. This stretch started with an 82-74 win over Purdue and featured 90-point efforts against Penn State and Indiana.

In addition, the Buckeyes should win the 3-point math. They rank 58th in 3-point shooting while also being 50th in 3-point defense.

There are more paths to an Ohio State victory, which is why I'm taking its moneyline value at Caesars. This line is out to -160 in the market.

🔥 Best TCU vs. Ohio State player prop bet

Our March Madness betting trends break down which coaches have been the most profitable in the NCAA Tournament.

Bruce Thornton Over 4.5 assists (+110)

One of the first rules in betting on March Madness is to back teams with veteran guards. Enter Ohio State senior Bruce Thornton, who is a big reason why his team has hit its stride over the past two weeks.

Thornton has averaged 21.8 points and 4.6 assists per game this month. That's up from his season averages of 20.2 points and 3.9 dimes per contest.

To me, the assist increase is a bigger deal, especially for this matchup. TCU ranks 347th in the country in defensive assist rate this year.

This same line is 5.5 at FanDuel, so I love the idea of getting a plus-money price tag on Over 4.5 dimes at bet365. I'd play this at -110 or better.

🚀 TCU vs. Ohio State same-game parlay

Because bet365 offers the best price on Thornton's assist prop, I have played my TCU vs. Ohio State parlay at that shop. Fortunately, the moneyline value (-140) and total are the same as well, offering the best possible payout at +440. To me, the game script of an Ohio State win involves the offense and Thornton maintaining their recent form, so these three legs are absolutely correlated.

💡 How I'm betting TCU vs. Ohio State: March Madness strategy

We all want to bet the first game of March Madness no matter what, but it's important to only do so if you feel confident in your edge. In this case, I feel good about where I landed for this matchup.

I'm risking 2.5 units between three picks, with Thornton's player prop being my favorite of the bunch. If you only want to bet one thing for this game, I'd recommend scooping up the plus-money price on his assist market in a favorable matchup.

Still, Ohio State's recent offensive form has been impressive enough to back its moneyline value and the Over as well.

📊 Live TCU vs. Ohio State odds: March Madness Round 1

Ohio State briefly opened as a 4.5-point favorite at FanDuel, but the line quickly dropped to 2.5. Most people saw an early line of 2.5, and the spread has remained there ever since. The total has gone from 146 to 146.5 thus far.

📈 TCU vs. Ohio State betting trends

📺 How to watch TCU vs. Ohio State: March Madness Round 1

• Date: Thursday, March 19
• Tipoff: 12:15 p.m. ET
• Location: Bon Secours Wellness Arena (Greenville, S.C.)
• TV: CBS
• Streaming: CBS App