🏀 Second Round Picks & Best Bets: March Madness Predictions (March 21)
March Madness got off to a thrilling start on Thursday, with five of the first nine games being decided by six or fewer points, including No. 1 seed Duke who was on the ropes for most of its game against Siena. Now all eight winners from the NCAA Tournament's opening day meet for the right to go to the Sweet 16, with games starting as early as 12:10 p.m. ET.
My Second Round picks add a varying perspective of picks to our March Madness predictions, including two totals and a first-half spread. Two of my three plays involve the two No. 1 seeds in action, Michigan and Duke.
🏀 Second Round picks & best bets: March Madness (March 21)
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Matchup | Pick | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| VCU vs. Illinois | Illinois first half spread -5.5 (-118 via FanDuel) | 1u -> 0.85u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Saint Louis vs. Michigan | Over 161.5 (-110 via FanDuel) | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| TCU vs. Duke | Under 140.5 (-110 via bet365) | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.67 units
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💰 Best Second Round bet
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Illinois first half spread -5.5 (-118)
By the end of Thursday, closing underdogs were 13-7 ATS with nine outright upsets through the first 20 NCAA Tournament games. By comparison, there were just eight outright upsets in last year’s entire First Four and Round of 64.
The market is being too kind to the Rams after Thursday’s historic comeback.
VCU wore down UNC’s lack of guard depth with relentless pressure, but Illinois turns the ball over at the sixth-lowest rate in the country. The Fighting Illini should cash this first half spread, after covering 66.7% of their non-conference games this year.
🔥 More Second Round picks
Saint Louis-Michigan Over 161.5 (-110)
Saint Louis and Michigan were two of three teams to score 100-plus points on Thursday. The Bilikens would now be wise to take a page out of Howard’s playbook that kept the No. 16 seed competitive against Michigan, turning the game into a track meet and taking advantage of the Wolverines’ tired legs.
In an effort to pull massive upsets over top-tier teams, coaches have opted to try and win the 3-point volume contest, in the hopes that a high-variance shooting effort tilts in their favor. Saint Louis certainly has the “stretch five” necessary to pull Michigan’s bigs away from the basket in Robbie Avila, which should space the floor and open up driving lanes for its relentless guards.
The Over is 9-4 in Saint Louis’ 13 non-conference games. And since I’m not worried about Michigan’s ability to score, I’m backing the Over as one of my top plays.
TCU-Duke Under 140.5 (-110)
TCU is not an overwhelmingly skilled offense, and it can struggle mightily when denied rim and transition buckets.
The Horned Frogs are coming off a game against an Ohio State team that entered in the sixth percentile of transition rate allowed, and proceeded to score just three fast break points. The Horned Frogs were also out-scored 34-24 in the paint, a big reason it shot 40.5% from 2-point range in a defensive struggle.
Conversely, TCU’s defense is built to turn this into a rockfight. Entering the NCAA Tournament, the Horned Frogs rated as a top-15 defense from an efficiency standpoint in 13 games against top-50 opponents. They also created turnovers at a top-20 rate in those games. But how did the offense fare against that elite competition? It ranked 74th, per Bart Torvik.
🚀 Best Second Round parlay picks
My best Second Round parlay starts by avoiding the overreaction to VCU's historic comeback and overall success of underdogs in the NCAA Tournament thus far. The last two legs involve totals where the pace of play should benefit the underdogs, as Saint Louis needs its game to be a track meet, while TCU will want to make its game against Duke a rockfight.
💵 Best Second Round parlay
- Illinois first half spread -5.5 (-118)
- Saint Louis-Michigan Over 161.5 (-110)
- TCU-Duke Under 140.5 (-110)
Best odds: +573 via FanDuel (1u -> 5.73u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 38-41 | -0.72 units ❌ | -0.9% ❌ |
| Game picks | 23-26 | -3.76 units ❌ | -27.1% ❌ |
| Player props | 14-13 | +4.17 units ✅ | +15.5% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting the Second Round: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
FanDuel offers great value for my top play on Illinois' first half spread, as it is the only top sports betting site at -5.5 compared to -6.5. Since this wager is limited to just the first 20 minutes, every bit of value one can get is important.
That wager, along with the other two totals, are all one-unit plays. In the case of Saint Louis vs. Michigan, I will be tuned in early to see how the pace of the game is going. If the Billikens aren't as full-throttle as I expect them to be, I may hedge this wager with an early play on the Under, as long as I'm getting a number comparable to the initial 161.5-point total.
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