🏀 Saint Joseph's vs. New Mexico Prediction & Picks: NIT Quarterfinals (March 24)

Saint Joseph's and New Mexico took different paths to this NIT quarterfinal matchup on Tuesday, with the Hawks winning two games by a combined six points, and the Lobos winning their two by an average of 24.5 points. Nonetheless, they meet for the right to go to the semifinals in this game that tips from The Pit in Albuquerque, N.M., at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN2). The Lobos are anywhere from a 10.5- to 11.5-point betting favorite.

My Saint Joseph's vs. New Mexico prediction expects a Lobos cover, as the Hawks are not built to keep up with New Mexico's high-powered offense. I also offer my score prediction and best player prop wager for this quarterfinal matchup.

🏀 Saint Joseph's vs. New Mexico picks & odds: NIT Quarterfinal

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

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🏆 Who will win Saint Joseph's vs. New Mexico?

New Mexico has looked like the most impressive team in the NIT thus far with two dominant victories of 24-plus points. Add in the fact that The Pit is one of the biggest home court advantages, and it should all add up to another Lobos victory.

Score prediction: New Mexico 82, Saint Joseph's 68

💰 Saint Joseph's vs. New Mexico prediction & best bet

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

New Mexico -10.5 (-118)

After New Mexico scored a blistering 1.41 points per possession against Sam Houston by carving up the Bearkats in pick-and-roll, the Lobos impressively scored 1.26 PPP against a tougher George Washington defense that allowed a 24th percentile pick-and-roll rate.

Nothing seemingly can stop New Mexico’s offense at the moment, and a brutal schedule should catch up to Saint Joseph’s. The Hawks have been on the West Coast since last Wednesday, and going from the Fort Collins altitude to Berkeley, and now to The Pit should greatly benefit the Lobos who have been at home the last 11 days. 

🔥 Best Saint Joseph's vs. New Mexico player prop bet

See our March Madness second chance bracket picks for the NCAA Tournament.

Jake Hall Over 3.5 3-pointers made (+105)

New Mexico’s 86-point performance against a stingy George Washington defense was made even more impressive when considering the Lobos were without Deyton Albury (flu), one of four Lobos averaging in double figures. But Albury’s likely return should mean less defensive attention will be paid to leading scorer Jake Hall (16.0 points per game).

Hall is tied for fourth all-time among D-I freshmen with 113 3-pointers, trailing only Detroit’s Antoine Davis, Davidson’s Stephen Curry, and Oklahoma’s Trae Young. 

Saint Joseph’s is one of the elite mid-major rim defenses, blocking shots at the 42nd-highest rate, and ranking in the top-40 in 2-point percentage allowed. That interior defense is a big reason the Hawks allow opponents to score 34% of their points from beyond the arc (84th-most). That makes these great odds for Hall to make four-plus 3-pointers for the third straight game, and fifth out of the previous six.

🚀 Saint Joseph's vs. New Mexico same-game parlay

Backing New Mexico to cover along with Jake Hall's Over on 3-pointers go hand-in-hand with each other. My reasoning for a somewhat contrarian pick with the full-game Under is because Saint Joseph's wings can be very streak shooters (the Hawks are bottom-40 in 3-point percentage), and the Lobos defense packs the paint with the eighth-highest 3-point rate allowed in the country.

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💡 How I'm betting Saint Joseph's vs. New Mexico: NIT strategy

Early pace of play will go a long way in determining if Saint Joseph's tempo and 22 Unders in 33 games will win out, or if New Mexico can impose its style that has seen the Over cash in 23 of its 34 games against D-I competition. If the Hawks aren't showing early signs of fatigue and are making perimeter shots, I may hedge out of my play on the Under, while not wavering in confidence that New Mexico can cover the 10.5-point spread.

📊 Live Saint Joseph's vs. New Mexico odds: NIT Quarterfinal

There is a wide one-point gap between the low end of the market at DraftKings with New Mexico at -10.5, and the high end that has Saint Joseph's at +11.5. Given that the juice on any +11.5 is at least -115 (53.49% implied odds), I project this spread to land somewhere in the middle at -11 at most top sports betting sites before tip. Bettors should keep an eye on Deyton Albury's availability, as his potential absence could swing the line in the Hawks' favor.

📈 Saint Joseph's vs. New Mexico betting trends

📺 How to watch Saint Joseph's vs. New Mexico: NIT Quarterfinal

• Date: Tuesday, March 24
• Tipoff: 9 p.m. ET
• Location: The Pit (Albuquerque, N.M.)
• TV: ESPN2
• Streaming: ESPN+