🏀 Penn vs. Illinois Prediction & Parlay Today: March Madness Round 1 Odds & Picks

No. 14 Penn pulled off a stunning Ivy League Tournament run, but No. 3 Illinois is a completely different animal tonight at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, S.C. Tipoff is at 9:25 p.m. ET on TNT, with the Fighting Illini installed as heavy favorites.

My best Penn vs. Illinois prediction and parlay backs Illinois to end Penn's tournament run quickly, and I'm riding TJ Power's red-hot 3-point shooting to add value tonight to our part of our March Madness predictions for this first-round matchup.

🏀 Penn vs. Illinois picks & odds: March Madness First Round

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.24 units

🏆 Who will win Penn vs. Illinois?

Illinois was on track to secure a No. 2 seed before falling in its opening Big Ten Tournament game against Wisconsin. Boasting one of the nation's top offenses all season, they should overwhelm a Penn squad that has never been recognized for its scoring ability.

Score prediction: Illinois 88, Penn 60

💰 Penn vs. Illinois prediction & best bet

See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Illinois -24.5 (-110)

Illinois has struggled recently, dropping four of their last nine games, but that shouldn't prevent the Fighting Illini from handling a Penn team that became an afterthought in the Ivy League Tournament after losing top scorer Ethan Roberts to concussion symptoms.

Penn had a big advantage on the sideline in the Ivy finals in Fran McCaffery who went 5-1 on the Friday-Saturday back-to-backs with no rest while Yale was 1-4. This is obviously a much different scenario with three days to prepare, and the Quakers offense that was 283rd offensively from Jan. 24 to Sunday will not keep up with Illinois.

🔥 Best Penn vs. Illinois player prop bet

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

TJ Power Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (-115)

TJ Power went over this projected total with four 3-pointers in the first half of the Ivy League Championship. His 44-point effort shouldn’t be overlooked, as it was the first even 30-point performance in the Ivy Tournament since Bryce Aiken dropped 38 in 2019.

Power is playing to his true potential after two different ACC stops at Duke and Virginia. I expect McCaffery will continue to ride Power’s hot hand, as the forward’s 26 field goal attempts compared to the rest of the team’s 38 were enough to overcome regular season champion Yale.

Instead of backing Power’s overall point total, I am focused just on his 3-pointers, as the Fighting Illini defense allows the 38th-highest percentage of points to opponents to come from beyond the arc.

🚀 Penn vs. Illinois same-game parlay

For this same-game parlay to work, I am banking on Illinois to come out scorching like it has for most of the season when it was second in the Big Ten in scoring at 84.4 points per game. If TJ Power is again one of Penn's lone sources of offense, that bodes well for the full-game Under and his Over on 3-pointers made to cash as well.

💵 Latest Penn vs. Illinois odds & betting splits

Latest betting insights via BetMGM.

Despite being massive underdogs, Penn is attracting 57% of spread bets ahead of tonight's tipoff. Illinois is drawing 86% of moneyline money, reflecting where the real confidence lies in the outcome for this first-round matchup. The total is essentially a coin flip. Monitoring live betting splits and line movement is one of the best ways to find value before locking in your March Madness picks tonight.

💵 My betting record for college basketball

All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.

💡 How I'm betting Penn vs. Illinois: March Madness strategy

While I feel confident in Illinois' ability to cover even if TJ Power goes superhuman from 3-point range again, I was torn on what to do with the total.

Illinois could be responsible for cashing most of the Over by itself if scores 90-plus for the ninth time this season. But a blowout late could mean two completely different things for the O/U, that Illinois lets its guard down defensively, or takes its foot off the gas offensively and slows tempo. Either way, I'm only investing a half-unit on the total because of that uncertainty.

📊 Live Penn vs. Illinois odds: March Madness First Round 

The best sports betting sites were split with opening numbers of either -23 or -23.5, but all have unanimously aligned at -24.5 as of Monday afternoon. 

We also seem to be settling into a comfortable number for the total, as the Over ballooned from an opening low of 148 all the way up to 150.5, before buyback appeared on the Under and brought it into the 149.5-150 range at most sportsbooks. I am backing the Under of 150.5 at bet365 before that vanishes too.

📈 Penn vs. Illinois betting trends

📺 How to watch Penn vs. Illinois: March Madness First Round

• Date: Thursday, March 19
• Tipoff: 9:25 p.m. ET
• Location: Bon Secours Wellness Arena (Greenville, S.C.)
• TV: TNT
• Streaming: HBO Max

🆚 March Madness first-round matchups & previews

Here is the first-round March Madness schedule, and our betting preview: