🏀 Penn vs. Illinois Prediction & Picks: March Madness First Round (March 19)

No. 14 seed Penn was one of the most surprising conference tournament champions, winning two games as an underdog, and looks for a third straight in this March Madness South Region matchup against No. 3 seed Illinois, with the Fighting Illini as a 24.5-point betting favorite. Tipoff from Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, S.C. is set for 9:25 p.m. ET (TNT). 

My Penn vs. Illinois prediction admires the job Quakers head coach Fran McCaffery did in guiding them to the tournament, but believes it's curtains on Thursday night as Illinois wins in a rout. Adding to our March Madness predictions, I am backing a player coming off a historic performance in his conference tournament as my top player prop wager.

🏀 Penn vs. Illinois picks & odds: March Madness First Round

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.24 units

🏆 Who will win Penn vs. Illinois?

See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Illinois was on a path to land on the two-seed line if it didn't lose its first Big Ten Tournament game to Wisconsin. It was one of the best offenses in the country all season, and should be too much to handle for a Penn team that was never known to have offensive firepower.

Score prediction: Illinois 88, Penn 60

💰 Penn vs. Illinois prediction & best bet

Illinois -24.5 (-110)

Illinois has scuffled losing four of nine, but that doesn’t mean the Fighting Illini should have trouble dispatching a Penn team that was an afterthought to win the Ivy League Tournament after losing leading scorer Ethan Roberts to concussion symptoms.

Penn had a big advantage on the sideline in the Ivy finals in Fran McCaffery who went 5-1 on the Friday-Saturday back-to-backs with no rest while Yale was 1-4. This is obviously a much different scenario with three days to prepare, and the Quakers offense that was 283rd offensively from Jan. 24 to Sunday will not keep up with Illinois.

🔥 Best Penn vs. Illinois player prop bet

TJ Power Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (-115)

TJ Power went over this projected total with four 3-pointers in the first half of the Ivy League Championship. His 44-point effort shouldn’t be overlooked, as it was the first even 30-point performance in the Ivy Tournament since Bryce Aiken dropped 38 in 2019.

Power is playing to his true potential after two different ACC stops at Duke and Virginia. I expect McCaffery will continue to ride Power’s hot hand, as the forward’s 26 field goal attempts compared to the rest of the team’s 38 were enough to overcome regular season champion Yale.

Instead of backing Power’s overall point total, I am focused just on his 3-pointers, as the Fighting Illini defense allows the 38th-highest percentage of points to opponents to come from beyond the arc.

🚀 Penn vs. Illinois same-game parlay

For this same-game parlay to work, I am banking on Illinois to come out scorching like it has for most of the season when it was second in the Big Ten in scoring at 84.4 points per game. If TJ Power is again one of Penn's lone sources of offense, that bodes well for the full-game Under and his Over on 3-pointers made to cash as well.

💵 My betting record for college basketball

All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.

💡 How I'm betting Penn vs. Illinois: March Madness strategy

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

While I feel confident in Illinois' ability to cover even if TJ Power goes superhuman from 3-point range again, I was torn on what to do with the total.

Illinois could be responsible for cashing most of the Over by itself if scores 90-plus for the ninth time this season. But a blowout late could mean two completely things for the O/U, that Illinois lets its guard down defensively, or takes its foot off the gas offensively and slows tempo. Either way, I'm only investing a half-unit on the total because of that uncertainty.

📊 Live Penn vs. Illinois odds: March Madness First Round 

The best sports betting sites were split with opening numbers of either -23 or -23.5, but all have unanimously aligned at -24.5 as of Monday afternoon. 

We also seem to be settling into a comfortable number for the total, as the Over ballooned from an opening low of 148 all the way up to 150.5, before buyback appeared on the Under and brought it into the 149.5-150 range at most sportsbooks. I am backing the Under of 150.5 at bet365 before that vanishes too.

📈 Penn vs. Illinois betting trends

📺 How to watch Penn vs. Illinois: March Madness First Round

• Date: Thursday, March 19
• Tipoff: 9:25 p.m. ET
• Location: Bon Secours Wellness Arena (Greenville, S.C.)
• TV: TNT
• Streaming: Max