🏀 Oklahoma vs. Baylor Prediction & Picks: CBC Semifinals Preview
Two former Big 12 rivals matchup in a College Basketball Crown semifinal game that should be short on defense and high on excitement when Oklahoma and Baylor go toe-to-toe on Saturday at 1:30 p.m. ET (FOX) from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
With both teams' defensive woes, my Oklahoma vs. Baylor prediction expects a high-scoring game between two fairly even programs as part of our College Basketball Crown predictions. Oklahoma is a 1-point betting favorite.
🏀 Oklahoma vs. Baylor picks & odds: College Basketball Crown
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma ML (-118 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.85u | Oklahoma has the more efficient offense and a slightly more competent defense |
| Over 157.5 (-115 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.87u | Both teams take an offensive approach and rank top 30 in offensive efficiency |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.72 units
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🏆 Who will win Oklahoma vs. Baylor?
Despite missing the NCAA Tournament, Oklahoma had been on a tear down the stretch before losing by just three in the SEC Tournament to an Arkansas team that reached the Sweet 16. Since Feb. 24, Porter Moser's program is 7-1 and top 10 in power rating, ahead of a UConn team playing in the Final Four. With how strong the Sooners have looked, I have them pulling off a 1-point win over Baylor.
Score prediction: Oklahoma 83, Baylor 81
💰 Oklahoma vs. Baylor prediction & best bet: CBC semifinals
Over 157.5 (-115)
This is about as fun a College Basketball Crown semifinal game as we could have hoped for, given the offensive talent both teams possess. Oklahoma is ranked 18th nationally in offensive efficiency (123.8), while Baylor isn't far behind at 27th (122.9).
And over the same span that the Sooners rank 10th in power rating (Feb. 24), the Bears are No. 2 nationally in offensive efficiency.
So why are these two offensive juggernauts not playing in March Madness? Well, they both rank outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency and the top 160 in effective field-goal percentage allowed.
📡 SBR Edge: Offensive guards galore
Both Oklahoma and Baylor have terrifying one-two punches in their backcourts. For the Sooners, it's Nijel Pack (16.6 PPG, 44.6% from three) and Xzayvier Brown (15.3 PPG). For Baylor, it's Cameron Carrer (19 PPG, 38.5% from three) and Tounde Yessoufou (17.9 PPG). Those four should provide plenty of points
🚀 Oklahoma vs. Baylor same-game parlay: CBC semifinals
While both teams are capable of scoring plenty and combined to average over 162 points per game, the Sooners' defense has been more effective over the last month. A few defensive stops late should be the difference for Oklahoma.
💵 Oklahoma vs. Baylor SGP picks
- Over 157.5
- Oklahoma ML
Best odds: +222 via FanDuel (0.5u -> 1.1u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 2.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-24 | +0.86 units ✅ | 1.7% ✅ |
| Game picks | 27-20 | +4.01 units ✅ | 8.5% ✅ |
| Player props | 1-4 | -3.15 units ❌ | -63.1% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Oklahoma vs. Baylor: CBC strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
With the way both of these teams are playing on the offensive end as of late, I lean toward prioritizing betting the Over at a full unit, and I'd take it with a game total as high as 159.5. But with that being said, I'm nearly as confident in backing the surging Sooners and would take them to win at any price shorter than -130.
📊 Live Oklahoma vs. Baylor odds: CBC semifinals
Oklahoma opened as a 1-point betting favorite at our best sports betting sites, and the line has seen little movement. With how these teams have both been playing and how they match up, I can't see the line moving much, if at all. The game total, on the other hand, has bounced between 157.5 and 158.5, and I could see it being as high as 159.5 by tip.
📈 Oklahoma vs. Baylor betting trends: CBC semifinals
| Oklahoma | Statistic | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| 20-15 | Record | 17-16 |
| 16-19 | ATS record | 15-17 |
| 18-17 | O/U record | 18-14 |
| 41st | KenPom ranking | 48th |
| 123.8 (18th) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 122.9 (27th) |
| 105.5 (102nd) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 106.0 (108th) |
📺 How to watch Oklahoma vs. Baylor: CBC semifinals
- Date: Saturday, April 4
- Tipoff: 1:30 p.m. ET
- Location: T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas)
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: Fubo
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