🏀 Ohio State vs. Penn State Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Picks Today (March 4)

Ohio State is coming off a massive win against then-No. 8 Purdue, and looks for a second straight win to improve its NCAA Tournament resume when it faces Penn State in a mid-week road game. The Big Ten clash is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET from Bryce Jordan Center in University Park, Pa., where the Buckeyes are a 6.5-point betting favorite. The tilt is streaming on Peacock.

My Ohio State vs. Penn State prediction recognizes that the Buckeyes are the healthiest they have been in quite some time, and should win by a bigger margin than their 84-78 home win over the Nittany Lions on Jan. 26. Data from that game suggests Buckeyes shooting guard John Mobley should be in for another big day.

🏀 Ohio State vs. Penn State picks & odds today: March 4

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.74 units

💰 Ohio State vs. Penn State prediction & best bet

Ohio State -6.5 (-115)

During Penn State’s 0-10 league start, it was competitive in losing to Michigan State and Michigan by a combined six points. Lately the Nittany Lions look like a team playing out the string, losing three of their last five home games by double digits, all to worse rated KenPom teams than Ohio State. 

Ohio State shot a blistering 71% from 2-point range in the first meeting without starting center Christoph Tilly. The Nittany Lions rank in the bottom-15 in 2-point defense and bottom-30 in effective field goal percentage defense in home games, so I expect those struggles to continue. 

Score prediction: Ohio State 83, Penn State 73

🔥 Best Ohio State vs. Penn State player prop bet

John Mobley Over 3.5 made 3-pointers (+100)

Entering the first matchup between these teams, Penn State was allowing an absurd 42% from 3-point range while facing the highest volume of 3-point attempts of any Big Ten team. Those trends manifested themselves against the Buckeyes, who connected on nearly 35% of their 3-point attempts, with John Mobley responsible for five of the eight makes.

With center Christoph Tilly back and healthy after a short one-game absence, the Buckeyes jacked up another 24 3-point attempts in Sunday’s win. Thus, there should again be plenty of shooting volume when facing a Penn State defense that allows the 25th-highest percentage of opponents’ points from 3-point range (36.9%).

🚀 Ohio State vs. Penn State same-game parlay

In league games, Penn State ranks dead last among Big Ten teams in adjusted defensive efficiency, 2-point and 3-point percentage allowed, and effective field goal percentage defense. That bodes well for the trifecta of an Ohio State cover, the full game Over, and the Over on John Mobley’s 3-pointers made to occur.

💡 How I'm betting Ohio State vs. Penn State

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.

Given Penn State’s propensity for playing the top teams in the conference tough on its home court or semi-home courts (lost to Michigan State by four, Michigan by two, Illinois by eight), I am not making my Buckeyes point spread pick anything higher than a one-unit play. 

I am getting the best number on the point spread and total at DraftKings. But my same-game parlay is made through bet365, as DraftKings did not have player props available.

📊 Live Ohio State vs. Penn State odds

Ohio State opened as high as 8.5-point favorites, but that line quickly evaporated and was bet down a full two points at DraftKings. But those top sports betting sites that opened at -6.5 saw action on the favorites enough to bump up to -7.5.

The total saw big movement to the Under anywhere that opened with a line higher than 154.5. The biggest movement was at DraftKings, which saw its total lower from 156.5 to 153.5 within four hours of the line being posted on Tuesday night.

📈 Ohio State vs. Penn State betting trends

📺 How to watch Ohio State vs. Penn State

• Date: Wednesday, March 4
• Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Bryce Jordan Center (University Park, Pa.)
• Streaming: Peacock