🏀 Northern Iowa vs. UIC Prediction & Odds: Missouri Valley Championship Picks (March 8)

The No. 5 seed and the No. 6 seed from the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament play for one of the four NCAA Tournament bids to be handed out today as Northern Iowa and UIC meet after splitting two regular-season meetings. The "Arch Madness" final tips from Enterprise Center at noon ET (CBS), with Northern Iowa the 2.5-point betting favorite.

My Northern Iowa vs. UIC prediction eschews the point spread and follows the long history and trends of Unders in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. Along with the full game Under, my top team prop bet also correlates to a low-scoring contest. 

For more on today's college basketball action, see Rob Paul's conference tournament guide and my college basketball predictions today.

🏀 Northern Iowa vs. UIC picks & odds today: Missouri Valley Conference Championship Game

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.69 units

💰 Northern Iowa vs. UIC prediction & best bet

Under 125.5 (-110)

Entering the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, the Under cashed in 65% of “Arch Madness” games (128-68) since 2005. That followed a year in which the Under was 13-1 through the 14 conference tournament games, and this year’s first round also started with three straight Unders.

These two teams’ regular season meetings saw 114 and 130 combined points. 

Northern Iowa allowed fewer than 60 points in its first two conference tournament wins. That included holding Illinois State to 52 points while avenging two regular season losses, one of which was the Redbirds’ only win when scoring fewer than one point per possession.

Score prediction: UIC 61, Northern Iowa 60

🔥 Best Northern Iowa vs. UIC team prop bet

Northern Iowa team total Under 63.5 (-115)

UIC employs a “two to the ball” defensive structure that takes elite ball movement and shooting to beat it. Needing to rely on perimeter shooting has rarely been a winning proposition in these MVC Tournament games, and Northern Iowa unfortunately is a jump shooting team that has the lowest free throw rate (23.8%) in league play.

The Panthers are typically a tough cover offensively for teams seeing them for the first time, as they rely heavily on aggressive cuts to the rim in their offensive sets. But the Flames have been a spoiler for that offensive philosophy, limiting Northern Iowa to an average of 60.5 in the two regular season meetings.

It is difficult to project the Panthers exceeding this team total in a more cavernous arena than these two teams’ on campus arenas.

🚀 Northern Iowa vs. UIC same-game parlay

The Under cashed in three of Northern Iowa's last four games and eight of UIC's last 11, which plays well for the full-game Under and Panthers team total wagers. In what I project to be a low-scoring game with points at a premium, even getting 2.5 points on the spread is a lot of value. 

💡 How I'm betting Northern Iowa vs. UIC

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.

Since all of my three wagers are similar in nature and all are confident four-star plays, I am spreading out three units of my bankroll with a one-unit play on each. 

While I am comfortable backing UIC's point spread of +2.5, I will also be sprinkling a half-unit on its moneyline odds. No moneyline prices were available at the time of this writing, but I would play the Flames down to +115.

📊 Live Northern Iowa vs. UIC odds

As of late Saturday night, Caesars and DraftKings were the only two of our best March Madness betting sites with lines posted for this game. They differed by a half point, with Caesars listing Northern Iowa as a 2-point favorite. There was a slightly wider gap among their totals, with Caesars a full point higher at 125.5. 

Caesars did not have any team totals available at the time of this writing, which is why I placed my same-game parlay through DraftKings even though its total worked less in my favor.

📈 Northern Iowa vs. UIC betting trends

📺 How to watch Northern Iowa vs. UIC

• Date: Sunday, March 8
• Tipoff: Noon ET
• Location: Enterprise Center (St. Louis, Mo.)
• TV: CBS