🏀 North Dakota vs. North Dakota State Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Picks Today (March 8)
No. 1 seed North Dakota State will battle No. 3 seed North Dakota in the Summit League final, with a trip to the NCAA Tournament on the line.
My North Dakota vs. North Dakota State prediction for today's 9 p.m. ET (CBSSN) game at Denny Sanford Premier Center in Sioux Falls, S.D., focuses on the lopsided nature of the two regular-season meetings between these two teams. North Dakota State is favored by 9.5, and my final score prediction highlights why the spread may not be large enough.
🏀 North Dakota vs. North Dakota State picks & odds today: Sunday, March 8
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Bet type | Prediction | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game prediction | North Dakota State -9.5 (-110 via FanDuel) | 2u -> 1.82u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Over/Under total | Over 144.5 (-110 via FanDuel) | 1u -> 0.91u (ex: 1u -> 0.91u) | ⭐⭐ |
| Team prop bet | North Dakota State Over 77.5 (-110 via DraftKings) | 1u -> 0.83u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 4.0 units | Max profit: 3.56 units
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💰 North Dakota vs. North Dakota State prediction & best bet
North Dakota State -9.5 (-110)
The two regular-season matchups between these teams weren't very competitive, with North Dakota State winning each by at least 17.
North Dakota State is 16-2 against Summit League teams, with nine of those victories coming by double figures. While North Dakota has the offensive ability to keep pace, averaging 77.0 points per game, the defense is allowing 77.5, which is going to be a huge problem against a North Dakota State team averaging 81.1.
FanDuel is offering -110 for -9.5, and while North Dakota State blew out North Dakota in both games, I wouldn't go higher than -10.5.
Score prediction: North Dakota State 82, North Dakota 66
🔥 Best North Dakota vs. North Dakota State team prop bet
North Dakota State Over 77.5 (-110)
North Dakota State has scored 76 and 74 in its two Summit League Tournament games, but this team scored at least 83 in each of its previous meetings with North Dakota. North Dakota State has also scored at least 71 in 11 of its last 12 games, giving the Bison a very high floor entering this contest.
While North Dakota has held back-to-back opponents below 70 points, this is a team that has allowed 90 or more nine times this season. The last time North Dakota faced its in-state rivals, the Fighting Hawks allowed 96 points.
FanDuel is offering Over 76.5 for -120, which is worth a look. However, I'll take the higher number for the better price, since I expect North Dakota State in the 80s in this game.
🚀 North Dakota vs. North Dakota State same-game parlay
While backing North Dakota State -9.5 and to score more than 77.5 points is the safer parlay, the payout is significantly worse for a win. That parlay has a price of +150 at FanDuel, which is significantly lower than the price if you add the game total to North Dakota State -9.5. Therefore, since both legs involve a lot of points being scored, I'll back the game total to increase this parlay value.
💵 North Dakota vs. North Dakota State SGP picks
- North Dakota State -9.5 (-110)
- Over 144.5 (-110)
Best odds: +248 via FanDuel (1u -> 2.48u)
💡 How I'm betting North Dakota vs. North Dakota State
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.
I'm willing to risk four units on this game, which is standard for me when picking a total, ATS or moneyline, and team prop. North Dakota State winning by 9.5 almost feels like a lock, but this is a championship game, so anything can happen. Still, it would take a lot for North Dakota to pull this upset. The Fighting Hawks' defensive weaknesses are also why I am risking one unit on the game Over and the North Dakota State team total Over. I'd be very surprised if at least one total doesn't hit.
📊 Live North Dakota vs. North Dakota State odds
The spread hasn't moved at all, and I don't expect it to, since the number is already so large. Yes, North Dakota State won by much more than 10 in each of its first two games against North Dakota, but it wouldn't be surprising to see them bench key players if this gets out of hand early. As for the total, the line opened at 149.5, and it has dropped five points. 144.5 is probably the lowest this number will ever get.
📈 North Dakota vs. North Dakota State betting trends
| North Dakota | Statistic | North Dakota State |
|---|---|---|
| 18-16 | W-L record | 26-7 |
| 20-11 | ATS record | 19-12 |
| 15-15-1 | O/U record | 17-12-2 |
| 3-2 | Last 5 games | 4-1 |
📺 How to watch North Dakota vs. North Dakota State
- Date: Sunday, March 8
- Tipoff: 9 p.m. ET
- Location: Denny Sanford Premier Center (Sioux Falls, S.D.)
- TV: CBSSN
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