🏀 North Dakota State vs. Michigan State Prediction & Picks: March Madness First Round (March 19)

Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo's name has become synonymous with "March Madness", and he leads his No. 3-seeded Spartans into an East Region First Round matchup against No. 14 seed North Dakota State on Thursday. The game tips from KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y., at 4:05 p.m. ET, airing on TNT. 

My North Dakota State vs. Michigan State prediction backs the Spartans as 16.5-point betting favorites and the Under of 143.5 points, with the Bison likely having a solid defensive game plan in store for Michigan State point guard Jeremy Fears. It's all part of our March Madness predictions. 

🏀 North Dakota State vs. Michigan State picks & odds: March Madness First Round

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

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🏆 Who will win North Dakota State vs. Michigan State?

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I'd look more into North Dakota State in a potential upset spot if it had played a schedule that involved any team outside a mid-major conference. Instead, the Bison did not play a single team ranked inside KenPom's top 115. Michigan State has won at least one game in each of its last seven NCAA Tournament appearances, not counting a First Four loss in 2021.

Score prediction: Michigan State 79, North Dakota State 61

💰 North Dakota State vs. Michigan State prediction & best bet

Under 143.5 (-110)

North Dakota State has the offensive system necessary to space out Michigan State’s defense, ranking in the 93rd percentile in catch-and-shoot rate combined with a 93rd percentile efficiency on such shots. But the Bison also generated many open looks by playing inside-out with an 82nd percentile post-up rate. The Spartans will not have to overhelp on post touches like other mid-majors.

My biggest reason for backing the Under as my best bet instead of Michigan State’s point spread is that the Bison rank in the 11th percentile in transition defense, a necessary feature to shutting down a Tom Izzo-coached attack.

🔥 Best North Dakota State vs. Michigan State player prop bet

Jeremy Fears Under 17.5 points (-105)

Few Big Ten players had the ball in their hands more than Jeremy Fears, who ranked sixth in the conference in possession percentage. While Fears also ranks in the 90th percentile in ball screen usage, North Dakota State’s new defensive philosophy of aggressive hedging should force the ball out of Fears’ hands early and often.

If Fears isn’t getting many points in transition (we already noted the Bison’s elite transition defense), the majority of his points will have to come up straight-line drives or mid-range jumpers. With the Under on his 1.5 3-point attempts juiced as high as -180 (64.29% implied odds), I do not see him making enough twos to exceed this total.

🚀 North Dakota State vs. Michigan State same-game parlay

There is some conflict in this same-game parlay with expecting Michigan State to cover while its leading scorer stays under his projected points total. However, there is solace in knowing Fears scored five or fewer points in his final three NCAA Tournament games last season, while still playing 26 minutes in each. 

💵 My betting record for college basketball

All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.

💡 How I'm betting North Dakota State vs. Michigan State: March Madness strategy

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

Jeremy Fears had the highest assist rate of all players in Big Ten action, so he is more than capable of leading the Spartans to a comfortable low-scoring victory while still acting as a primary facilitator. 

I am just as confident on Michigan State getting through easily as I am in the Under, as this is the fourth time in the last 25 years (and the second since 2015) that all four No. 3 seeds have a better than 50% chance to make the Sweet 16. Because of that confidence, all three of my bets are one-unit wagers.

📊 Live North Dakota State vs. Michigan State odds: March Madness First Round

The point spread has not budged off the opening number of -16.5 at any of the best sports betting sites. But that number may shorten as North Dakota State has seen 69% of the early wagers.

The total has only moved at bet365, which ticked up from an opening number of 142.5 to 143.5 to align with the rest of the market.

📈 North Dakota State vs. Michigan State betting trends

📺 How to watch North Dakota State vs. Michigan State: March Madness First Round

• Date: Thursday, March 19
• Tipoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
• Location: KeyBank Center (Buffalo, N.Y.)
• TV: TNT
• Streaming: Max