North Carolina vs. NC State Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Picks Today (Feb. 17)
A loaded Tuesday of college basketball includes one of the best rivalries in the sport, as NC State hosts No. 16 North Carolina tonight.
With the game set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) from the Lenovo Center in Raleigh, N.C., my North Carolina vs. NC State prediction expects these Tobacco Road foes to light up the scoreboard. NC State is a 6.5-point betting favorite, and as part of my college basketball predictions, I'm offering a score prediction and player prop bet.
And don't miss our UCLA vs. Michigan State prediction for tonight's Big Ten showdown.
🏀 North Carolina vs. NC State picks & odds today: Feb. 17
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Bet type | Prediction | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game prediction | North Carolina +6.5 (-105) | 1u -> .95u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Over/Under total | Over 158.5 (-110) | 1u -> .91u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Player prop bet | Quadir Copeland 10+ assists (+375) | 0.5u -> 1.87u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 3.73 units
💰 North Carolina vs. NC State prediction & best bet
Over 158.5 (-110)
This matchup should be a lot of fun because both teams rely heavily on their offenses. Both the Wolfpack and Tar Heels are in the top five in the ACC in adjusted offensive efficiency and outside the top 40 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency.
NC State's been a strong Over bet this year (16-10), with Will Wade's team playing fast (top 100 in tempo) and shooting efficiently, ranking No. 10 in the country in 3-point percentage (39.4%).
Meanwhile, UNC is without Caleb Wilson, one of the country's best defenders, but has had Jarin Stevenson step up on the offensive end.
Score prediction: NC State 83, North Carolina 79
🔥 Best North Carolina vs. NC State player prop bet
Quadir Copeland 10+ assists (+375)
NC State's Quadir Copeland has been one of the best setup men in the country this season. The McNeese State transfer leads the ACC in assists per game (6.8) and has taken that up to 7.8 in conference play.
Copeland is surrounded by a trio of capable scorers (Ven-Allen Lubin, Darrion Williams, Paul McNeil Jr.) poised to capitalize on his passes against a UNC defense allowing the highest 3-point percentage in ACC games (40%).
With Wilson out, I love taking the alt-line at bet365 for Copeland to hit double-digit assists for the fourth time in six games.
📊 Live North Carolina vs. NC State odds
With Wilson out, NC State opened as 6.5-point betting favorite but the status of Tar Heels' center Henri Veesaar will shift this line to some degree. The 7-footer is listed as questionable after missing UNC's last game. I suspect his health will shift this line a point or two.
North Carolina won its last game without Wilson and Veesaar, but that came against a dreadful Pittsburgh team. This is Hubert Davis' program's first real test without Wilson, and if it doesn't have Veesaar, its defense will be in even worse shape.
💡 How I'm betting North Carolina vs. NC State
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.\
It's hard to gauge exactly how North Carolina is going to look, especially with Veesaar's status unclear. However, that's why betting the Over is my favorite play and why I'm more confident betting one unit on it than on the Tar Heels to cover.
NC State is a wildly inconsistent team, mainly because its defense rarely shows up. The Wolfpack have allowed 85.8 PPG in their last five games and have hit the Over in nine of their last 11.
That need to make up for their defense is why I'm willing to put half a unit on Copeland hitting double-digit assists tonight. He's the best passer in the ACC, and Wilson won't be there to protect the rim.
🚀 North Carolina vs. NC State same-game parlay
Even with Wilson out, I expect North Carolina to put plenty of pressure on an NC State defense that's struggled all season. The Wolfpack have been turning every ACC game into a shootout, which is why they've hit the over in seven of their last eight. Copeland has averaged 8.5 assists per game during that stretch.
💵 North Carolina vs. NC State SGP picks
- North Carolina +6.5 (-105)
- Over 158.5 (-110)
- Quadir Copeland 10+ assists (+375)
Best odds: +1670 via bet365 (0.2u -> 3.34u)
📈 North Carolina vs. NC State betting trends
| North Carolina | Statistic | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| 20-5 | W-L record | 18-8 |
| 14-11 | ATS record | 13-13 |
| 12-13 | O/U record | 16-10 |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 3-2 |
📺 How to watch North Carolina vs. NC State
- Date: Tuesday, Feb. 17
- Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Lenovo Center (Raleigh, N.C.)
- TV: ESPN
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