North Carolina vs. Kentucky Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Betting Preview for Dec. 2

My North Carolina vs. Kentucky prediction believes the No. 16 Tar Heels can keep pace with the No. 18 Wildcats on the road. Tipoff is 9:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday at Rupp Arena on ESPN.

Kentucky is a 6.5-point favorite, despite being shorthanded for tonight’s pivotal matchup.

✅ North Carolina vs. Kentucky predictions

🏀 North Carolina vs. Kentucky best bet & score prediction

See all of our experts' college basketball picks this week.

North Carolina +6.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Most college basketball projections suggest there's value on Kentucky at home. KenPom forecasts a 10-point win, while EvanMiya makes this line 10.5. However, the reason it’s 6.5 (and there is still value on the road underdog) is Kentucky’s injury report.

Kentucky is shorthanded in a marquee matchup

Wildcats head coach Mark Pope doesn’t expect Mo Dioubate or Jaland Lowe to be back on the floor for tonight’s matchup against North Carolina. Jayden Quaintance has also yet to make his season debut.

According to EvanMiya’s BPR metric (Bayesian Performance Rating), those are three of Kentucky’s top seven players. It’s not easy to defeat high-major programs without three rotation players.

The Wildcats have lost to Louisville (96-88) and Michigan State (83-66) during their 5-2 start. Both opponents rank inside the top 15 on KenPom, whereas all five of Kentucky’s wins have come against teams ranked 208th or worse.

North Carolina is 31st on KenPom, which is 20 spots below Kentucky. But given the current rosters of both teams, the gap between them is a little closer than that.

We also dove into this matchup as part of our college basketball best bets and player props today.

Score prediction: Kentucky 81, North Carolina 77

🆚 North Carolina vs. Kentucky matchup to watch

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Caleb Wilson vs. first road test

Freshman Caleb Wilson, a potential lottery pick next summer, is off to an impressive start in his debut season. He’s averaging 19.9 points and 9.9 rebounds per game.

Wilson scored a season-high 24 points in his first marquee matchup against Kansas. He also recorded 18 points against Michigan State. He’s a talented player with a promising future.

However, a visit to Rupp Arena will be Wilson’s first road game of his collegiate career. A points prop of 20.5 seems a touch high, which is why I like Caesars’ -110 value on the Under to win $9.09 on a $10 bet.

Best prop bet: Caleb Wilson Under 20.5 points (-110 via Caesars)

📊 North Carolina vs. Kentucky odds

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📺 How to watch North Carolina vs. Kentucky

• Date: Tuesday, Dec. 2
• Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Rupp Arena (Lexington, KY)
• TV: ESPN