North Carolina vs. Duke Prediction, Odds & Preview Today: Best Picks for Feb. 1

Mike Spector

Last Updated: February 1, 2025 7:54 AM EST • 3 min 59 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

North Carolina vs. Duke prediction — Pictured: Duke Blue Devils forward Cooper Flagg (2) shoots during the second half. Photo by Rob Kinnan-Imagn Images.

If ESPN’s College Gameday show is in town one knows it’s a big game, and it does not get much bigger in terms of college basketball rivalries as the Duke Blue Devils host the North Carolina Tar Heels from Cameron Indoor Stadium on Saturday night. Our North Carolina vs. Duke prediction attacks the 13.5-point spread along with my favorite player prop pick.

It is not much of a surprise to see the Blue Devils as 13.5-point home favorites considering they own the nation’s longest active winning streak at 14 games. They're the favorites by the March Madness odds with the tournament approaching.

Our North Carolina vs. Duke prediction and odds breakdown conclude that the big point spread is justified despite this being a rivalry game. Tipoff from Durham is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

North Carolina vs. Duke predictions today

College basketball picks based on the odds from our best March Madness betting sites.

Against the spread pick: Duke -13.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. North Carolina ⭐⭐⭐
My best pick: Elliot Cadeau Under 10.5 points (-125 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

North Carolina vs. Duke ATS prediction

Duke to cover the spread: -13.5 ⭐⭐⭐

There is a real possibility Duke will finish the regular season 20-0 in ACC play. It is already the first ACC team to start 10-0 in league play since Virginia in 2018 and is the ninth such instance of an ACC team starting 10-0 in conference since 1990.

Meanwhile, this is shaping up to be one of UNC’s most disappointing seasons in recent memory. The 2024-25 Tar Heels would become the third team in school history to have lost 10 games by Feb. 1 since 1952 if they lose at Duke today.

We are starting to see some regression from UNC’s 3-point defense.

Entering Tuesday’s game against Pittsburgh, the Tar Heels had limited conference opponents to 27% from beyond the arc. However, Boston College and Pitt, UNC’s last two opponents, have combined to shoot 46% (23-for-50) from 3-point range.

This would become a more confident play if UNC’s Jalen Washington is ruled out for a second straight game with a knee injury.

Washington’s absence depleted the Tar Heels’ frontcourt depth against Pitt, and the team had only one player taller than 6-foot-6 play significant minutes (Ven-Allen Lubin scored just six points in 32 minutes).

All of our best March Madness betting sites are in unison with a spread of -13.5, but I am headed to BetMGM to take advantage of its -110 odds, as Duke’s spread is juiced as high as -120 elsewhere. Through the -110 odds, a $10 winning wager would pay out $19.09.

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Best North Carolina vs. Duke pick

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Elliot Cadeau Under 10.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Duke is one of the best defensive teams in the country, ranking third in adjusted defensive efficiency and fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed.

The Blue Devils also protect the paint better than any team in the country, allowing a D-I best 41% inside the arc.

That does not bode well for Elliot Cadeau’s chances of lighting up the scoreboard, especially since he has followed up a freshman year where he shot 18.9% from 3-point range by connecting on only 28.1% of his 3-point attempts thus far.

Cadeau scored seven points apiece in each of the two meetings with Duke last year, going 0-for-4 combined from 3-point range. Unless Cadeau is getting most of his points in transition, I do not see him making enough perimeter shots to go over this total.

There is great value to be had at FanDuel with this wager, as bet365 has its O/U set a point lower at 9.5 (still juiced to -115 to back the Under).

Best odds: -125 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 55.56%

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Cooper Flagg player prop odds

Here are Cooper Flagg's best player prop odds for Saturday's matchup against North Carolina.

Live North Carolina vs. Duke odds

See all of this week's college basketball odds and NCAAB scores.

North Carolina vs. Duke opening odds

Spread: North Carolina +13.5 (-110 via BetMGM) | Duke -13.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Over/Under: Over 149.5 (-110 via BetMGM) | Under 149.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Moneyline: North Carolina +675 via BetMGM | Duke -1100 via BetMGM

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North Carolina vs. Duke game info

When: Saturday, Feb. 1
Tipoff: 6:30 p.m. ET
Where: Cameron Indoor Stadium (Durham, N.C.)
How to watch: ESPN
Favorite: Duke -13.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”