UAB vs. Vanderbilt Predictions, Odds & Picks: Are we in For Defensive Struggle in NIT Battle?
The No. 2 seed Vanderbilt Commodores and No. 4 seed UAB Blazers meet with a berth in the NIT semifinals on the line. Read on for our UAB vs. Vanderbilt prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.
UAB (27-9, 14-6 C-USA) has won 10 of 11 games, with the only loss coming in the Conference USA Tournament championship game to Florida Atlantic. The Blazers own two non-conference wins over SEC opponents (Georgia and South Carolina) and ended the regular season by winning 10 of their final 11 games.
Vanderbilt (22-14, 11-7 SEC) beat two Sweet 16 teams on its home court (Arkansas and Tennessee), owns a win over Auburn, and beat Kentucky twice. However, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee ultimately decided that its 5-11 Quad 1 record and the fact that it had a Quad 4 loss on its resume (to Grambling State) did not warrant the Commodores’ inclusion into the Big Dance.
Here is our best UAB vs. Vanderbilt prediction (odds via FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
UAB vs. Vanderbilt odds
UAB vs. Vanderbilt prediction
Under 153.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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UAB plays at a frenetic pace (31st in tempo, per KenPom) and averages just over 16 seconds per offensive possession (37th), which are big reasons it ranks in the top 10 in scoring nationally at 81.5 points per game. However, those numbers are a tad inflated, with the non-conference portion of the schedule supplying much of those gaudy numbers.
When the competition has gotten more challenging over the previous four games (two C-USA Tournament games and two NIT games), the Blazers have averaged just 74.3 points per game and have combined to shoot 24-for-89 (26.9%) from 3-point range.
Conversely, UAB’s trapping zone pressure is difficult to prepare for on short turnarounds in tournament settings, and the SEC does not have many teams that mimic the Blazers’ unique style. In addition, Vanderbilt’s offense is heavily predicated on ball screens, which UAB will look to take away with harassing pressure.
The Over is 20-16 in Vanderbilt’s 36 games this year, but the Under has cashed in 11 of 19 home games. Memorial Gymnasium has one of the most unique setups in the country, with benches underneath the baskets, making communication when teams are on the other end of the floor nearly impossible. That is a big reason this is a four-star play, along with the fact that the Under has cashed in each of Vanderbilt’s last seven games against C-USA competition.
Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.
UAB vs. Vanderbilt best odds
FanDuel (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
| 153 | 153.5 | 153.5 | 153 | N/A |
| -110 | -110 | -115 | -110 | N/A |
There is not much variance among the major sportsbooks on this total, but FanDuel’s odds offer the best value for Under backers. Not only is FanDuel one of two sportsbooks offering a number as high as 153.5, but it also charges standard juice, unlike BetMGM, which charges a steeper price of -115 to back the Under.
UAB is the 16th-most profitable team to the Over, cashing it in 23 of 35 games (65.7%). However, the Under is 4-1 in its last five.
UAB vs. Vanderbilt odds analysis
The Commodores opened as consensus -1.5 favorites, and no sportsbook has yet to budge off that number. Sportsbooks may be forced to shade the line to Vanderbilt at some point, considering it has attracted 67% of early wagers.
The consensus O/U opened at 153.5, and any early line movement has gone in the direction of the Under, as it has received 52% of early wagers.
UAB vs. Vanderbilt game info
Date: Wednesday, March 22, 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
Location: Memorial Gymnasium (TN), Nashville, TN
UAB-Vanderbilt pick made 3/22/2023 at 6:17 a.m. ET.
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