🏀 Who Will Be Next UNC Basketball Coach? Prediction Market Odds & Favorites

The nightmare is over for North Carolina men's basketball fans after the school parted ways with Hubert Davis on Tuesday, opening up arguably the most storied job in college basketball right in the middle of March Madness. How's that for a top story?

While early coaching candidates have flooded the news cycle since Davis' departure, the next UNC head coach odds have seen two candidates - Chicago Bulls head coach Billy Donovan and Arizona head coach Tommy Lloyd - emerge as the clear favorites in the prediction markets, though both are actively coaching their teams.

Could the Tar Heels hire outside of the "Carolina family" for the first time in over 70 years? We break down the coaching search with the latest odds, top candidates, and my prediction to take over in Chapel Hill, N.C.

📊 Next UNC head coach odds: Who will be next North Carolina HC?

Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.  

The Kalshi market for the next UNC head coach has been volatile, to say the least, with Donovan and Lloyd climbing the board as reports swirl about the open job. We've seen some top candidates drop precipitously, too, including Iowa State coach T.J. Otzelberger and Florida coach Todd Golden.

Here are the full Kalshi percentages and the conversion to American odds, via our odds converter.

💰 Favorites to be next UNC coach

It's too early to circle any one candidate as the clear "front-runner" to be the next coach at North Carolina - there's a reason none of the coaches in the mix have Kalshi percentages higher than 50%. But two names have emerged as the top picks for the Tar Heels based on the early reporting for the open role.

Billy Donovan, Chicago Bulls (34%)

Donovan has been rumored as a candidate for every top coaching job since he left his post at Florida in 2015, but could the two-time national champion finally be lured back to the collegiate ranks after a decade in the NBA? It sure looks that way with The Athletic's Brendan Marks - who is as plugged in with this program as anyone - reporting this week that Donovan "will at least hear North Carolina's pitch" for the open role.

The Bulls coach was evasive with the media when asked about the job this week, and it's not hard to connect the dots given the smoke coming from UNC's side. I'm still a bit skeptical that Donovan would bail on Chicago midseason, and the Tar Heels can't wait until late April with the transfer portal opening soon. But if he's interested, he'd be the best candidate available on paper.

Tommy Lloyd, Arizona (24%)

Lloyd’s odds have more than doubled since Davis was fired, and early reports suggest he's the top pick within the North Carolina athletic department. It's easy to understand why: he's made the tournament all five seasons at Arizona with top-two seeds in four of them, and the Wildcats are a No. 1 seed in this year’s bracket.

He also spent 20 years at Gonzaga as the right-hand man for Mark Few, who was among the top rumored candidates when Davis was hired in 2021. Lloyd's coaching style would seem to be a strong fit with Carolina's identity on the court, and his chops as an elite recruiter could revive this program's talent pipeline after a rough decade on the trail.

📈 More UNC head coach candidates

As of this writing, Donovan (34%) and Lloyd (24%) are the only coaches with a higher than a 10% chance to be the next UNC head coach according to Kalshi. My money would be behind one of those two, but here are some of the other top candidates in the market.

Mark Byington, Vanderbilt (10%)

Byington has the least name recognition among the top candidates, but his name keeps popping up in early reports about UNC's preferred candidates - including in Marks' sourced report on Wednesday. That has me intrigued by the Vanderbilt coach, who turned around the Commodores' program with back-to-back trips to the Big Dance. He does have connections to the area, having played at UNC-Wilmington, too, though his track record of success as a collegiate head coach is clearly the biggest draw.

Nate Oats, Alabama (7%)

Oats has the on-court resume to rival some of the top candidates in this field, having led Alabama to the Sweet 16 in four consecutive seasons with a Final Four run in 2024. Yet his hefty buyout ($18 million) and history of off-court issues within the program have reportedly ruled him out of the mix, according to Marks.

Ben McCollum, Iowa (5%)

McCollum has been a proven winner at every stop, claiming four Division II national championships at Northwest Missouri State before leading Drake to a 31-4 record and its first tournament win since 1971 in his only season there. He's continued that momentum in his first year at Iowa with a second-round win over defending champion Florida. The 44-year-old coach boasts one of the best career winning percentages (.771) in men’s college basketball history - ranking directly between Roy Williams (.774) and Mike Krzyzewski (.766) - though his lack of sustained D-I success is a concern.

Dusty May, Michigan (5%)

May was the hottest name in the coaching cycle in 2023, when he led Florida Atlantic to its first Final Four in school history before turning Michigan back into a perennial power over the last two seasons with national title hopes this year. He'd be a potential long-term hire at just 49 years old, but it’s hard to see him leaving Michigan after two years.

👀 More names to watch for UNC head coach

I'd be surprised if any of these coaches were hired to be the next UNC head coach, but you can still buy shares on these coaches at Kalshi before they potentially gain steam:

• T.J. Otzelberger (3%) - The Iowa State head coach was a hot name in the early news cycle, but he shot down rumors and recommitted to the Cyclones on Wednesday.
• Mark Few (3%) - Few coaches have Few's resume, but they also lack his stability at Gonzaga. It'd take a rift in Spokane for the Pacific Northwest native to leave home.
• Rick Pitino (2%) - The Hall of Fame coach has turned St. John's into a contender, and while he has a history of climbing the ladder, he'd be a strange fit in Chapel Hill.
• Scott Drew (2%) - The Baylor coach turned down the Kentucky job in 2024 after building Baylor into a national champion. If he said no to Big Blue, he’s likely saying no to UNC.
• Sean Miller (2%) - Has Texas rolling this season, but past NCAA infractions at Arizona make this a complicated fit for a program that values its public image.
• Todd Golden (2%) - Like Oats, Golden has a resume worth hiring but comes with off-court baggage that reportedly has the Tar Heels looking in another direction.
• Brad Stevens (<1%) - The former Butler head coach and current Boston Celtics president of basketball operations will always be a dream candidate, but he's already said no.
• Dan Hurley (<1%) - Even if UNC is a dream job on paper, Hurley has led UConn to a national championship in two of the last three years. He's not going anywhere.
• Jerry Stackhouse (<1%) - Stackhouse might be the most qualified coaching candidate with clear UNC ties, but the program is expected to look "outside the family" for now.
• Kenny Smith (<1%) - Regardless of what Stephen A. Smith might say publicly, there is no reason to think Smith - another former UNC guard - is in the mix for this job.

🔮 Who will be the next UNC head coach? Prediction & best bet

Tommy Lloyd has been the fastest riser in this market for good reason: those who are plugged in have circled his name as one to watch, and he's the best active college basketball coach with any legitimate chance of leaving their current program.

After helping Few turn Gonzaga into an annual title contender out west, Lloyd moved a few hours south and turned Arizona back into a national power - winning 61 games in his first two seasons and 146 games in his first five seasons, both the most in Division I history. That's a function of elite recruiting as well as smart in-game management, too.

Both were an issue under Davis, which has UNC brass looking for an outside hire for the first time since Frank McGuire took over in 1952. It's hard to imagine a better fit than Lloyd, who still has decades of coaching ahead with a more manageable buyout ($9-12 million) than some of the other top coaching candidates.

Those close to the program seem to think Lloyd will be the guy. That's enough for me to take a shot at a still generous price in the prediction markets.

✅ Prediction: Tommy Lloyd (24%)

📜 UNC head coaching history

North Carolina has had just six head coaches since 1952 - a span that includes six national championships and 21 Final Fours. The Tar Heels’ next hire is expected to break a nearly 75-year tradition of promoting from within the “Carolina Family.”

Before McGuire, the Tar Heels had 13 head coaches who combined for one trip to the Final Four (Ben Carnevale, 1946) and zero national championships. That all changed with McGuire, who led UNC to a 32-0 season and first national title in 1957. He was the last North Carolina head coach who didn't previously play or coach (or both) for the school.

❓ Next UNC head coach FAQs

Who are the top candidates to be the next UNC basketball head coach?

Billy Donovan (34%), Tommy Lloyd (24%), Mark Byington (10%), Nate Oats (7%), Ben McCollum (5%), and Dusty May (5%) are the favorites to be the next UNC coach according to the latest prediction market prices at Kalshi.

Who is leading the UNC coaching search?

Outgoing athletic director Bubba Cunningham and incoming AD Steve Newmark are co-leading the search. UNC has hired executive search firm Turnkey ZRG to assist along with an advisory board of former players, coaches, and supporters. The UNC System president must give final written approval on any contract.

Will UNC hire outside the "Carolina Family"?

All signs point to yes. Every UNC head coach since 1961 had previous ties to the program: Dean Smith, Bill Guthridge, Matt Doherty, Roy Williams, and Hubert Davis were all either former players or assistants. With no viable internal candidate, this will likely be the first outside hire in nearly 75 years.

When will UNC name a new head coach?

No official timeline has been announced for the UNC head coaching hire, but the transfer portal opens on April 7, so we can expect a hire to be finalized before then.

Why was Hubert Davis fired?

Davis was hired in 2021 and led the Tar Heels to a national championship appearance in his first season, but UNC suffered two of its four all-time first-round losses in his five seasons - the most recent coming when North Carolina blew a 19-point lead to VCU in the biggest blown lead in the first round in NCAA Tournament history.

How many national championships has UNC basketball won?

North Carolina has won six men's basketball national championships: 1957 (Frank McGuire), 1982 and 1993 (Dean Smith), and 2005, 2009, and 2017 (Roy Williams). The Tar Heels have also appeared in the Final Four an NCAA-record 21 times.

What is Kalshi and how does it work?

Kalshi is a federally regulated prediction market where users buy and sell contracts on real-world events, including coaching hires. Unlike a traditional sportsbook, Kalshi prices contracts as percentages representing the market's implied probability of an outcome. A candidate at 34% means the market believes there's roughly a one-in-three chance they get the job.