🏀 New Mexico vs. Tulsa Prediction & Picks: NIT Semifinal (April 2)

It's a battle of two No. 1 seeds in the first NIT semifinal as New Mexico meets Tulsa at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis on Thursday. The Lobos are anywhere from a 3.5 to 4.5-point betting favorite ahead of tipoff at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN).

My New Mexico vs. Tulsa prediction recognizes that the Lobos have won their three NIT games by a combined 64 points, but points to their struggles away from The Pit in Albuquerque playing a big factor in why the Golden Hurricane will cover the spread in this matchup. My NIT predictions also break down my favorite player prop for the game.

🏀 New Mexico vs. Tulsa picks & odds: NIT Semifinal

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.59 units

🏆 Who will win New Mexico vs. Tulsa?

New Mexico is the rightful favorite after dominating its way to the semifinals, winning by over 21 points per game. But the Lobos also benefited from one of the most underrated home court advantages in college basketball the last three games, and are just 1-3 SU in their last four games away from home. I like New Mexico to advance, but Tulsa to cover.

Score prediction: New Mexico 82, Tulsa 80

💰 New Mexico vs. Tulsa prediction & best bet

Tulsa +4.5 (-120)

New Mexico has averaged 92.3 points in three NIT wins, but its 3-point shooting has regressed each round. The Lobos drilled 13 triples against Sam Houston State, and followed that up with 11 and just six 3-point makes.

That’s important entering a matchup against the Golden Hurricane, who makes threes at D-I’s fifth-highest rate. Tulsa gets nearly 6% more of its scoring from beyond the arc than its opponents.

Tulsa also entered its second NIT game with the fourth-best plus-minus in the country from its starting five, trailing only teams that made the Sweet 16 (Purdue, Arizona, and Houston).

🔥 Best New Mexico vs. Tulsa player prop bet

Deyton Albury Over 0.5 3-pointers made (-112)

The Golden Hurricane should be jacking up threes in huge volume against a New Mexico defense that is built around rim denial, ranking in the third percentile in rim rate allowed. 

Because New Mexico will likely not want to fall behind much in the 3-point volume race, I expect the Lobos will shoot more than their 41.7% 3-point attempt rate they averaged for the season, especially since they make threes at a top-50 rate.

Deyton Albury is not a volume 3-point shooter, attempting two or fewer in each of his last six games. But he has connected on each of his last four 3-point attempts and has at least one made three in four of his last six games, making these -112 odds at a 52.83% implied probability a great bet.

🚀 New Mexico vs. Tulsa same-game parlay

Since bet365 was the only top sports betting site offering player props at the time of this writing, I'm sacrificing somewhat on the point spread and total, as there are better lines on each elsewhere. Because I'm not getting optimal value on the spread and total like I am with my individual bets, I am limiting this wager to 0.25 units. Regardless, the three-leg same-game parlay still plays nicely together, as a high-scoring game with Tulsa having success offensively should force New Mexico and Deyton Albury's hand to keep up with the scoring.

💵 My betting record for college basketball

All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.

💡 How I'm betting New Mexico vs. Tulsa: NIT strategy

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

I toyed with the idea of making Tulsa +4.5 a two-unit play since FanDuel is offering so much value with a standalone line of +4.5 (compared to all others at +3.5). Nonetheless, it is a confident one-unit play as Tulsa has covered two-thirds of its games as underdogs as well as its non-conference games.

If any player props surface for Tulsa, I would not put anyone off backing its players' 3-point odds either. Not only do the Golden Hurricane shoot a lights-out 38.9% from 3-point range as a team, but they rank 37th in 3-point attempt rate. Tulsa's 381 made 3-pointers this season obliterated the school’s previous high of 288 in 2000-01, and also surpassed Houston’s previous American Conference record of 337.

📊 Live New Mexico vs. Tulsa odds: NIT Semifinal

For the last 48 hours, FanDuel has remained in isolation as the only one of our best sports betting sites offering a line of Tulsa +4.5, which is a full point higher than the rest of the market at +3.5. That is also the more popular side as the Golden Hurricane have attracted 59% of the wagers, so those that prefer the underdog should get on them at the higher number while they can.

There is a smaller half-point gap between the low end of the market with an O/U of 160.5 and the high end at 161. Only BetMGM and bet365 ever reached totals of 161.5 or higher. But since both were bet down immediately from that number, that seems like the ceiling this total will ever reach again before tip.

📈 New Mexico vs. Tulsa betting trends

📺 How to watch New Mexico vs. Tulsa: NIT Semifinal

• Date: Thursday, April 2
• Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
• Location: Hinkle Fieldhouse (Indianapolis)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: ESPN+