🏀 Michigan vs. Arizona Same-Game Parlay: Final Four SGP Picks & Odds Tonight
Iβm anticipating a high-scoring showdown between two of the nationβs elite offenses when the Michigan Wolverines men's basketball take on the Arizona Wildcats men's basketball on Saturday, with Brayden Burries and Yaxel Lendeborg continuing their impressive March Madness runs.
Michigan is favored by 1.5, but my best Michigan vs. Arizona same-game parlay for Saturday's 8:49 p.m. ET (TBS, truTV, HBO Max, March Madness Live) Final Four game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis highlights why Burries and Arizona can win this game. Below, I make my best March Madness predictions, with my same-game parlay coming in with odds of +3000.
π Michigan vs. Arizona same-game parlay: Final Four SGP picks
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| π° Pick | π Best odds | π§ Why it's included |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona moneyline (+105 via DraftKings) | 1.5u β 1.5u | Arizona's defense will make enough stops and prevent Michigan from getting second chances on the offensive glass. |
| Brayden Burries to make 3+ 3-pointers (+120 via DraftKings) | 1u β 1.58u | Burries has been on fire from deep this tournament, and Michigan allows 8.3 3-pointers per game. |
| Yaxel Lendeborg to score 25+ points (+550 via FanDuel) | 1u β 5.3u | Lendeborg has scored at least 25 points in two of his last three games, and should have another solid performance in a high-scoring game. |
Best odds: +3000 via DraftKings (0.5 units to win 15 units)
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π° Michigan vs. Arizona SGP picks & analysis: Final Four 2026
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the Final Four.
KenPom ranks the Michigan and Arizona defenses, No. 1 and No. 2 nationally, but don't let that overshadow how good these offenses are. Both teams are averaging over 86 points per game, and Lendeborg and Burries are playing incredibly well in March. While I'm taking a risk on Lendeborg to score at least 25 for the third time in four games, I think Arizona will get enough stops and big shots from Burries to win this game.
π Leg 1: Arizona moneyline
Arizona lost twice this season by a combined seven points. Since those two losses, Arizona has won 13 in a row, with an average margin of victory of 13.9 during that span. Eight of those 13 wins were against ranked teams.
I fully expect Arizona to struggle with Lendeborg, but this is a team that just held Purdue's second-ranked offense, according to KenPom, to 64 points and 38% shooting. Arizona is one of the best rebounding teams in the country, and with Michigan averaging just 10.8 offensive rebounds per game, the Wolverines won't get enough second-chance points to win.
π₯ Leg 2: Brayden Burries to make 3+ 3-pointers
Burries is shooting 40.2% from beyond the 3-point line this season, and in the NCAA Tournament, he's been even better, shooting 68.4%. He's made at least three 3-pointers in three of his four tournament games.
Michigan ranks 22nd in 3-point shooting defense. However, the Wolverines are allowing 8.3 3-pointers per game, which ranks 266th in the nation. Burries isn't a high-volume 3-point shooter, averaging 4.8 per game in the tournament, but he's red-hot right now, and I refuse to fade him in a good matchup.
π― Leg 3: Yaxel Lendeborg to score 25+ points
If you checked out my Michigan vs. Arizona player props, then you know I love Lendeborg to score more than 16.5 points in this game. For this parlay, I'm going to take it a step further, as Lendeborg has scored at least 25 points in two of his last three games.
Arizona is allowing only 68.8 points per game, but the Wildcats have been prone to letting star players put up big performances. In the Sweet 16, Darius Acuff Jr. scored 28, and in the Big 12 semifinals, Milan Momcilovic scored the same amount.
〽️ Nobody can slow Yaxel
Our Rob Paul expects Yaxel Lendeborg to continue his dominance and be a major factor in his Michigan vs. Arizona prediction.
π΅ My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 53-57 | +62.06 units β | +42.5% β |
| Game picks | 33-21 | +28.27 units β | +35.1% β |
| Player props | 13-15 | -7.10 units β | -16.7% β |
| Parlays | 7-21 | +40.88 units β | +177.7% β |
π Live Michigan vs. Arizona odds: Final Four 2026
Arizona opened as a 1.5-point favorite, but the spread has since swung in favor of Michigan, with the Wolverines now favored by 1.5. I'd gladly take Arizona as the favorites in this game, so getting them to win at +105 provides excellent value for this parlay. The total for this game opened at 156.5 and has since risen to 157.5. It seems that the best sports betting sites and the public both agree with me that this will be a very high-scoring game.
π‘ How I'm betting Michigan vs. Arizona: Final Four SGP strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
This could be the most even matchup of the entire NCAA Tournament, with two great teams battling for a spot in the national championship. While I've backed Arizona all tournament long, I'm still only willing to wager 1.5 units on the Wildcats to win because Michigan is that good.
As for the player props, I'll wager one unit on Burries to make three 3-pointers and Lendeborg to score at least 25 in hopes of turning in a huge payday, even if all three legs of this parlay don't hit.
πΊ How to watch Michigan vs. Arizona: Final Four 2026
- Date: Saturday, April 4
- Tipoff: 8:49 p.m. ET
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
- TV: TBS/truTV
- Streaming: HBO Max, March Madness Live
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