🏀 Michigan State vs. Michigan Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Picks Today (March 8)
It's time to close out the college basketball regular season with a proper Big Ten battle between two in-state rivals. Michigan will host Michigan State at 4:30 p.m. ET on Sunday in the Crisler Center in Ann Arbor, Mich., on CBS.
The Wolverines have cruised through the regular season with only two losses and a few scares, but my Michigan State vs. Michigan prediction expects the Spartans to pose a challenge. That's why I like the Under in a potential defensive battle on Sunday. Read on for my score prediction and favorite player prop as well.
For more on today's college basketball slate, see Rob Paul's conference tournament guide and Mike Spector's college basketball predictions.
🏀 Michigan State vs. Michigan picks & odds today: March 8
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Bet type | Prediction | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game prediction | Michigan State +9.5 (-102 via FanDuel) | 0.5u -> 0.49u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Over/Under total | Under 150.5 (-110 via DraftKings) | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Player prop bet | Yaxel Lendeborg Under 1.5 made 3-pointers (+105 via BetMGM) | 0.5u -> 0.52u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.92 units
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💰 Michigan State vs. Michigan prediction & best bet
Under 150.5 (-110)
I was hoping to recommend Michigan State's spread as my best bet, but the line has dropped from +11 to +9.5 overnight. It would still be a three-star recommendation, but the Under now has a touch more value in today's Big Ten battle.
For the Spartans to have a shot, they must slow this game down. Fortunately for them, the Spartans rank 265th in adjusted tempo. They are eighth in defensive efficiency and have posted a 17-13 clip to the Under.
Michigan has more firepower as one of the best teams in the sport, but it can also win a slugfest. The Wolverines are second in adjusted defensive efficiency. Rob Paul has Michigan earning a No. 1 seed in his March Madness bracket predictions.
I project this game to be the 140s, so I like the value of the Under at 150 or better.
Score prediction: Michigan 77, Michigan State 70
🔥 Best Michigan State vs. Michigan player prop bet
Yaxel Lendeborg Under 1.5 made 3-pointers (+105)
Don't be surprised if the Spartans' primary objective is to slow down Michigan post Yaxel Lendeborg. He finished with 26 points and 12 rebounds in the first head-to-head meeting, but a lot of his damage was done inside. Lendeborg attempted 15 free throws and went 5-for-9 on 2-point shots.
From the 3-point line, Lendeborg hit one of four attempts. He's an effective shooter when left out there by himself, which is why he's knocked down multiple triples in five of his past six contests.
However, since he's the top name on the scouting report, I don't expect the Spartans to allow much space.
This prop is only available at BetMGM or bet365.
🚀 Michigan State vs. Michigan same-game parlay
My Michigan State vs. Michigan parlay is betting on this Big Ten matchup turning into a slugfest. Assuming that happens, the Spartans will like their chances of staying within single digits. All three legs are correlated into the game script I'm forecasting, so bet365's +525 payout on this SGP is worth a nibble.
💵 Michigan State vs. Michigan SGP picks
- Under 150.5 (-110)
- Michigan State +9.5 (-110)
- Yaxel Lendeborg Under 1.5 3-pointers (+105)
Best odds: +525 via bet365 (0.1u -> 0.56u)
💡 How I'm betting Michigan State vs. Michigan
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.
For the final game of the college basketball regular season, I'm betting on a rivalry matchup being closer than expected. Michigan won by a dozen in the first meeting after a strong start, but perhaps Michigan State can change the script in Sunday's rematch.
Michigan had already wrapped up the Big Ten regular-season title in late February, so it has had nothing to play for during the final week. In the first game with no stakes, the Wolverines claimed a three-point win over Iowa. If they bring the same intensity to their rivalry matchup, the Spartans will make them pay.
I've allocated two units to today's game, as I expect Michigan State to put up a fight in the finale.
📊 Live Michigan State vs. Michigan odds
The spread has dropped from 11 to 9.5 in the market, as bettors seem more interested in backing the Spartans as road underdogs in Sunday's finale. I'd be surprised if this line dropped much lower, though it could still get to 9 at some shops.
The total has climbed from 150 to 150.5, but it's unlikely that the early movement is any indication of where it will close.
📈 Michigan State vs. Michigan betting trends
| Michigan State | Statistic | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| 25-5 | W-L record | 28-2 |
| 14-14-2 | ATS record | 15-15 |
| 13-17 | O/U record | 11-19 |
| 5-0 | Last 5 games | 4-1 |
📺 How to watch Michigan State vs. Michigan
- Date: Sunday, March 8
- Tipoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Crisler Center (Ann Arbor, Mich.)
- TV: CBS
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