Michigan State vs. Kentucky Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Betting Preview for Nov. 18

My Michigan State vs. Kentucky prediction for the first game of the Champions Classic doubleheader projects the clash to be the best game of the night.

No. 12 Kentucky (3-1) is a 4.5-point favorite, but the team lost its only challenging game of the season thus far when it fell at Louisville. No. 17 Michigan State’s best win during a 3-0 start came at home against Arkansas.

Tipoff is at 6:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday from Madison Square Garden in New York on ESPN.

✅ Michigan State vs. Kentucky prediction & expert picks

See all of our experts' college basketball picks this week.

🏀 Michigan State vs. Kentucky preview & score prediction

The 5.5-point spread is a tad high, especially considering Evan Miya’s website projects a 3.5-point difference between the two teams on a neutral site. His projections do a better job of accounting for injuries, which matters here since Kentucky guard Jaland Lowe is out with a shoulder issue.

Can Spartans slow down shorthanded Wildcats?

Lowe’s absence could be a significant loss for Kentucky, as he played 30 minutes while finishing with a team-best five assists during that defeat at Louisville. Will the Wildcats lose some of their offensive effectiveness without him?

Tuesday’s matchup against Michigan State offers a good opportunity to test that theory. The Spartans rank 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They haven’t given up more than 69 points in a game yet this season.

Meanwhile, Kentucky, has scored 88-plus points in three straight games. The Wildcats rank eighth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency.

I’m banking on the Spartans slowing down the Wildcats on a neutral site, an outcome most projections reflect. Evan Miya projects 77.4 points for Kentucky, while KenPom forecasts 79 points.

Our Mike Spector also examined this matchup in his college basketball best bets today.

Score prediction: Kentucky 77, Michigan State 74

🆚 Michigan State vs. Kentucky matchup to watch

Jeremy Fears Jr. vs. Kentucky’s defensive assist rate

Michigan State guard Jeremy Fears Jr. leads the country while averaging of 9.3 assists per game. He’s recorded nine-plus assists in all three contests, including 10 dimes in the season opener.

You’d expect his assist total to drop in a marquee matchup, but Kentucky’s defense has been struggling with ball movement. The Wildcats are giving up an assist rate of 61.4%, which ranks 308th in the nation. For context, the national average is 53%.

I like the idea of getting a plus-money price on Fears recording eight assists.

Best prop bet: Jeremy Fears Jr. Over 7.5 assists (+105 via BetMGM)

📊 Michigan State vs. Kentucky odds

See live college basketball odds for every game.

📺 How to watch Michigan State vs. Kentucky

• Date: Tuesday, Nov. 18
• Tipoff: 6:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Madison Square Garden (New York)
• TV: ESPN