🏀 Michigan State vs. Indiana Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Picks Today (March 1)
No. 13 Michigan State looks to add to its NCAA Tournament resume off its first road win at Purdue since 2014, while Indiana looks to snap a three-game losing streak. Tipoff from Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Ind., is set for 3:45 p.m. ET. You can catch the game on CBS.
The Spartans are a 3.5-point betting favorite, but my Michigan State vs. Indiana prediction makes the contrarian play and backs the home underdogs off a three-game losing streak as Michigan State is riding high off a top 10 win. And while Indiana lost 81-60 at Michigan State on Jan. 13, its offense moved the ball well, which is why I am backing the Over on Tucker DeVries’ assists.
🏀 Michigan State vs. Indiana picks & odds today: March 1
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Bet type | Prediction | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game prediction | Indiana +3 (-116 via bet365) | 1u -> 0.87u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Over/Under total | Over 145.5 (-115 via bet365) | 1u -> 0.87u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Player prop bet | Tucker DeVries Over 2.5 assists (-112 via bet365) | 1u -> 0.89u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 2.63 units
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💰 Michigan State vs. Indiana prediction & best bet
Indiana +3 (-116)
While Michigan State beat Indiana in January, the game was tied at 53 before the Spartans went on a 28-to-2 run. But I expect the Hoosiers will clean up the areas that led to their demise and play much better in front of a raucous home crowd.
The Spartans scored 23 points in transition in the first meeting and also grabbed 48% of their misses. But Indiana ranks in the top 150 in the country in defensive rebounding rate, and a positive regression this afternoon should make up for the 32-22 edge the Spartans held in points in the paint.
Score prediction: Michigan State 74, Indiana 73
🔥 Best Michigan State vs. Indiana player prop bet
Tucker DeVries Over 2.5 assists (-112)
When Indiana matched Michigan State at 53 points apiece in the first meeting, it was zipping the ball around the perimeter and owned an 81% assist rate (until that point). The Hoosiers' offense all season has been predicated on spacing, ball movement, and shot-making, which is why it ranks ninth nationally in assist rate.
Tayton Conerway had nine of the team’s 17 assists in the first matchup. But he has also played 10 or fewer minutes in four of the last seven games, and head coach Darian DeVries clearly trusts his son with the ball more in his hands of late.
Tucker DeVries’ 17.9% assist rate in league play is higher than his 17.4% assist rate on the season, and he should find success offensively against a Spartans defense that ranks in the bottom 65 in assist rate allowed (57.2%).
🚀 Michigan State vs. Indiana same-game parlay
If Indiana is going to cover the spread at home in this rematch, it likely needs a big day offensively from Tucker DeVries, one of two Hoosiers averaging at least 13.6 points. And while both teams are more profitable to the Under this season, the Over has cashed in two of the previous three meetings between these teams at Assembly Hall.
💵 Michigan State vs. Indiana SGP picks
- Indiana +3 (-116)
- Over 145.5 (-110)
- Tucker DeVries Over 2.5 assists (-112)
Best odds: +573 via bet365 (1u -> 5.7u)
💡 How I'm betting Michigan State vs. Indiana
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.
Michigan State has a path to offensive success in this matchup, especially after point guard Jeremy Fears’ penetration was a big reason the team finished 19-for-27 from 2-point range in the first meeting.
While those are reasons to back the Over, I love the contrarian nature of Indiana getting 3.5 points when coming off a three-game losing streak, facing a Michigan State team off a win against a national title contender. The point spread, Over, and DeVries’ assist prop are all one-unit plays, but I wouldn’t put anyone off sprinkling a little bit on Indiana’s moneyline odds.
📊 Live Michigan State vs. Indiana odds
Multiple top sports betting sites opened at Michigan State -3.5 and were quickly bet down to Indiana -2.5 before rebounding to the opening number. The initial line movement suggests sharp action was on the Hoosiers early, and +2.5 is the lowest I would play the spread down to.
All of the best sports betting sites that opened with an O/U of 144.5 were quickly bet up to 145.5, but that is the ceiling for the total thus far.
📈 Michigan State vs. Indiana betting trends
| Michigan State | Statistic | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| 23-5 | W-L record | 17-11 |
| 15-13 | ATS record | 13-15 |
| 12-16 | O/U record | 13-15 |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 2-3 |
📺 How to watch Michigan State vs. Indiana
- Date: Sunday, March 1
- Tipoff: 3:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall (Bloomington, Ind.)
- TV: CBS
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