Miami vs. Florida Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Betting Preview for Nov. 16

No. 10 Florida looks to knock an in-state rival from the ranks of the unbeatens as we break down our Miami vs. Florida prediction. This game tips off as part of the GEICO Jacksonville Hoops Showdown from Veterans Memorial Arena at 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN).

Florida (2-1) is a 10.5-point betting favorite over Miami (3-0) in this neutral-site matchup. Given the Gators’ early-season struggles, I make the case for the underdogs from the ACC to cover the spread.

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📊 Miami vs. Florida odds

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🏀 Miami vs. Florida preview & score prediction

Florida has played the tougher of the two schedules to this point, especially by starting the season against a talented Arizona squad right out of the gate. That 93-87 defeat to the Wildcats made the Gators the first reigning champion to lose their season opener since 2003 and the fourth to do so in the last 30 seasons.

This is Florida’s third straight game against an in-state opponent and second straight against a team from the ACC. But its struggles in its last game (and all season thus far) are big reasons I am backing Miami as a neutral-site underdog.

Florida has struggled offensively

The Gators rank in the bottom 30 nationally in 3-point shooting. Florida has connected on just over 21% of its 3-point attempts despite jacking up 30 threes per game. 

Florida has also committed turnovers at a 19.4% rate (ranks 237th) and committed a season-high 18 turnovers against Florida State.

Its two-point win over the Seminoles on Florida's home floor was concerning, especially since Florida State was selected 15th of 18 teams in the ACC preseason media poll, while Miami ranked eighth.

The Hurricanes have the size to deal with Florida’s intimidating frontcourt, as they rank 35th in average height compared to the Gators’ No. 11 ranking in the same metric. With that size, Miami has a top-35 defensive rebounding rate, which will be critical in keeping a Florida team that ranks sixth in offensive rebounding off the glass. 

Caesars is the only one of our best sports betting sites where one can back the Hurricanes at +10.5 at the standard -110 juice. All other competing sportsbooks charge a price of at least -112 at 52.83% implied odds, but Caesars’ -110 odds would return the best value of $9.09 in profits on a winning $10 wager.

Score prediction: Florida 89, Miami 81

🆚 Miami vs. Florida matchup to watch

Hurricanes' offense vs. Gators' defense

Four Miami players scored in double figures in the first half in the Hurricanes' last game against Stetson. In addition, Malik Reneau has scored 20-plus in three straight games for the first time in his four-year collegiate career. 

Miami has dominated its last two opponents in the paint, outscoring Stetson 56-20 and Bethune-Cookman 58-26. And Miami’s 28 assists in its last game were one shy of its school record. 

Meanwhile, Florida has allowed opponents to score 30.5% of its points on free throws (13th-worst). And teams haven't needed to rely on the 3-point line against the tall Gators, who have allowed 23.2% of their points allowed via the long ball, the 318th-lowest in the country.

Best prop bet: Miami team total Over 79.5 points (-110 via FanDuel)

📺 How to watch Miami vs. Florida

• Date: Sunday, Nov. 16
• Tipoff: 8:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Veterans Memorial Arena (Jacksonville, Fla.)
• TV: ESPN