Memphis vs. Louisville Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Betting Preview for Dec. 13

My Memphis vs. Louisville prediction breaks down this nonconference tilt between two teams coming off big wins against top-35 KenPom squads. Tipoff from the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Ky. is set for 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN).

No. 11 Louisville is anywhere from a 15.5 to 16.5-point betting favorite. But the matchup and style of play between the Tigers and Cardinals suggest we should be in for a high-scoring affair.

✅ Memphis vs. Louisville predictions

🏀 Memphis vs. Louisville best bet & score prediction

See all of our experts' college basketball picks this week.

⬆️ Over 158.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Memphis and Louisville are two fierce rivals finally facing off for the first time since 2017. While the Tigers seem to have righted the ship after a four-game losing streak while putting together three consecutive wins, I am making the Over my Memphis vs. Louisville best bet.

Louisville’s 3-point prowess

Entering its last game against Baylor, Memphis was among the nation’s best in terms of rim attempt prevention, allowing rim attempts at the 25th-lowest rate. While that paid off handsomely in holding the Bears to just 33.3% shooting from inside the arc (12-of-36), that type of paint-clogging defense could backfire against Louisville.

The Cardinals attempt 3-pointers on 54.6% of their overall field goal attempts (third-highest in Division I), and they've connected on such shots at a top-80 rate (36%). 

Memphis, meanwhile, scored 78 points in a home win against Baylor after not topping 78 points in any game during an earlier four-game losing streak. That production was impressive considering the Bears entered with the second-fewest rim attempts allowed among Division I teams, and the Tigers only shot 18.8% from 3-point range.

Some may be concerned about the rust factor with both teams coming in after a full week of rest. But the two teams have combined to cash the Over in 50% of games on four or more days of rest this season. The Over is also 7-2 in Memphis’ last nine games dating back to 2023 (and 4-1 last season) against ranked opponents. 

There's great value for Over backers at FanDuel, which is alone among the best sports betting sites while offering a total lower than 159.5. If the Over cashes, a $10 winning wager through FanDuel’s -115 price at 53.49% implied odds would net $8.70 in profit.

Score prediction: Louisville 88, Memphis 74

🆚 Memphis vs. Louisville matchup to watch

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J’Vonne Hadley vs. Memphis' defense

Louisville can still be productive offensively when its perimeter shots aren’t falling, like when it scored 80 points during a road loss at Arkansas despite connecting on just 8-of-37 3-pointers. But the Cardinals still get the 19th-highest percentage of their points from beyond the arc, making this a no-brainer play for J’Vonne Hadley to connect on at least one 3-pointer.

Hadley is shooting threes at a 47.1% clip thus far, and he's made at least one 3-pointer in four consecutive games. He's also nailed at least one perimeter shot in seven of his eight games played this season, and Hadley is coming off a season-high five 3-point attempts against Indiana.

Head over to my college basketball best bets today for more prop picks.

Best prop bet: J’Vonne Hadley Over 0.5 3-pointers made (-140 via bet365)

📊 Memphis vs. Louisville odds

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📺 How to watch Memphis vs. Louisville

• Date: Saturday, Dec. 13
• Tipoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Location: KFC Yum! Center (Louisville, Ky.)
• TV: ESPN