🏀 March Madness Upset Picks Today: Best Round 1 Underdog Bets
The first day of the NCAA Tournament features 16 games and quite a few upset opportunities. Three No. 6 seeds are favored by less than five points, while two power-conference No. 5 seeds are on upset alert.
While there are plenty of potential March Madness upset picks, I'm looking at three particularly enticing matchups where injuries and key statistical categories actually favor the underdogs. For more coverage of the NCAA Tournament, check out our best March Madness predictions.
🏀 March Madness upset picks today: Best underdog bets for Round 1
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Matchup | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| VCU vs. North Carolina | VCU (+125 via BetMGM) | 2u -> 2.5u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's | Texas A&M (+143 via Caesars) | 1.5u -> 2.14u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| High Point vs. Wisconsin | High Point (+390 via FanDuel) | 1u -> 3.9u | ⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 4.5 units | Max profit: 8.54 units
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💰 Best March Madness upset pick today
See all of our March Madness upset predictions for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
VCU (+125)
With leading scorer Caleb Wilson (19.8 points per game) out against VCU, I expect North Carolina's losing streak to extend to three games. Without Wilson, North Carolina has just two players averaging over 10 points per game, and one of those players, Seth Trimble, hasn't scored more than 13 in either of his last two contests.
Meanwhile, VCU is averaging 81.6 points per game. To keep up, North Carolina is going to need to create extra possessions. However, North Carolina is tied for 321st in steals per game (5.3), and they rank 184th in offensive rebounds per contest (10.8).
For more on this game, our own Shane Thurston covered the contest in full in his VCU vs. North Carolina prediction.
🚨 More March Madness upset picks today
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Texas A&M (+143)
With Texas A&M averaging 87.7 points per game, I expect this contest to be played outside of Saint Mary's comfort zone. These two teams play opposing styles, with Texas A&M ranking 29th in adjusted tempo, according to KenPom, and Saint Mary's ranking 298th.
But Texas A&M isn't out of control offensively. The Aggies are shooting 46% from the field, the same as Saint Mary's, and they're averaging 12.2 offensive rebounds per game, tied for 73rd in the country. Saint Mary's is averaging more offensive rebounds per game, but the caliber of opponent needs to be factored in here.
Then there will be extra possessions generated by turnovers. Saint Mary's is averaging just 5.6 steals per game, while Texas A&M is averaging 8.1. Texas A&M will force plenty of turnovers against a team that ranks outside the top 100 in turnovers per game.
Shane Thurston goes into more detail about this game in his Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's prediction.
High Point (+390)
High Point is the third-highest scoring team in the nation, averaging 90.0 points per game. The Panthers also shoot 49.1% from the field, which is 20th-best in the country.
Wisconsin also shoots well from the field, making 45% of its shots, and the Badgers are averaging 83.0 points per game. Therefore, for High Point to spring the upset, the Panthers must win the turnover battle. Wisconsin is averaging the ninth-fewest turnovers per game (8.9), but High Point also doesn't turn the ball over much, averaging just 9.4 per contest.
Additionally, High Point is actually the team more likely to force the other in unusual turnovers, as High Point averages 10.9 steals per game. That's the most in the country. Wisconsin only averages 5.7.
Our own Shane Thurston is also expecting High Point to be competitive in this game, as he details in his High Point vs. Wisconsin prediction.
🚀 Best March Madness underdog parlay today
Because North Carolina is missing Wilson, VCU is by far the safest play of this parlay. I think Texas A&M is being undervalued after playing the best conference in basketball against a team with inflated stats against a mediocre conference at best. And while High Point is a long shot, the Panthers are great at forcing turnovers and shooting the ball, which are two key ingredients for a mid-major upset.
💵 Best March Madness underdog parlay
- VCU
- Texas A&M
- High Point
Best odds: +2465 via Sportsbook (1u -> 24.65u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-14 | +1.09 units ✅ | +3.6% ✅ |
| Game picks | 6-8 | -1.83 units ❌ | -9.6% ❌ |
| Player props | 2-2 | -0.87 units ❌ | -13.3% ❌ |
| Parlays | 2-4 | +3.79 units ✅ | +75.7% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting March Madness upsets today
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
VCU is an easy two-unit play for me. I could go higher, but there's also a chance that without their leading scorer, the Tar Heels are still better than VCU. Texas A&M is just a 1.5-unit play because Saint Mary's is very good both offensively and defensively. But we've seen the same story with Saint Mary's year-in and year-out, where the Gaels can't get out of the first weekend against solid competition. And while the price for High Point makes them an intriguing play, I'll stick with just one unit in case all of the Panthers' success was strictly because of competition this season.
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