🏀 March Madness Survivor Pool Picks Round 1 2026: Expert Strategy & Rankings

The first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament is finally here, with two days of non-stop college basketball action and do-or-die games, but for those of us who are trying to survive and advance, it can be nauseating trying to make the perfect March Madness survivor pool picks for Round 1.

Luckily, there's a handful of March Madness survivor pool picks that look like strong options for round-by-round pools, and I power-ranked them all from the best play to the worst play as Round 1 gets set to tip off. 

Don't miss our March Madness bracket predictions for the 2026 NCAA Tournament. 

📊 March Madness survivor pool power rankings: Round 1

For more on survivor pool strategy, check out my March Madness survivor pool guide.

🎯 Best March Madness survivor picks for Round 1

The best overall pick: Arkansas 

Although Hawaii is one of the most interesting teams in the NCAA Tournament, the Rainbow Warriors ranked poorly in my March Madness Cinderella Index for a reason. Arkansas is red hot coming off an SEC Tournament title, and is No. 5 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (127.7) and No. 1 in turnover rate (12.3%).

Hawaii's no-help defense doesn't match up well with John Calipari's ISO-heavy offense, and Razorbacks guard Darius Acuff Jr. is No. 3 nationally in offensive rating (126.4).

Arkansas likely plays Wisconsin in Round 2, so the Razorbacks aren't worth saving.

The safest pick: Kansas

It's hard to understand this Kansas team sometimes, but I don't expect Cal Baptist to stress Bill Self and Co. out much. The Jayhawks are battle-tested, having played the No. 1-ranked schedule in strength of schedule rating (+16.95), and Self's only Round 1 loss since 2007 came last year to an underseeded Arkansas team.

The Jayhawks have a top 10 defense in adjusted efficiency, while Cal Baptist leans heavily on a 5-foot-10 guard, Dominique Daniels Jr., to carry the load. That doesn't bode well for the Lancers, with Kansas having the projected No. 1 pick likely guarding him (Darryn Peterson) and the SEC Defensive Player of the Year (Flory Bidunga) protecting the rim.

With Kansas expected to play the Big East champs, St. John's, in Round 2, there's no reason to need the Jayhawks in later rounds.

The riskiest pick: Utah State 

Sometimes it pays to get crazy in survivor pools, but in a round-by-round pool, it's probably not the best call to take a No. 9 seed favored by just 1.5 points in Round 1. Still, I have supreme confidence in Utah State taking down Villanova, with the Aggies in the top 15 in the country in effective field goal percentage (56.6%).

The shooting of Mason Falslev and MJ Collins should stress a Wildcats defense that's No. 177 in effective field goal percentage allowed (51.3%). 

If Utah State wins, it plays No. 1 seed Arizona in Round 2, so again, this isn't a team you'd need to save. However, there are way too many options on the board to get risky in Round 1.

🚫 Survivor pool picks to avoid in Round 1

These are the teams you should under no circumstances burn in Round 1 because they're far more valuable to save.

Round 1 teams to avoid in trap games

• No. 6 Louisville (vs. No. 11 South Florida): The Cardinals are already on upset alert with Mikel Brown Jr. out for them and South Florida looking like a potential Cinderella thanks to an offense that takes more shots per game than any other in the NCAA Tournament (66.0) and a defense that's top 25 in efficiency over the last month (95.3)
• No. 4 Alabama (vs. No. 13 Hofstra): The Crimson Tide are expected to be without second-leading scorer Aden Holloway, and Hofstra is a feisty team that allows the fourth-lowest field goal percentage in the country (38.7%) and has a star scorer in Cruz Davis
• No. 5 Texas Tech (vs. No. 12 Akron): Not only are the Red Raiders without star JT Toppin, but Christian Anderson was dinged up in the Big 12 Tournament, and now they play an Akron team that's top 10 in the country in PPG (88.4), offensive rating (123.1), and effective field goal percentage (58.5%)
• No. 7 Kentucky (vs. No. 10 Santa Clara): Kentucky has been one of the toughest teams to trust this season, so you shouldn't in a survivor pool ... plus, Santa Clara is surging and ranks No. 4 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (136.4) since the beginning of March
• No. 4 Nebraska (vs. No. 13 Troy): The Cornhuskers have never won an NCAA Tournament game, and while Troy also hasn't, the Trojans matchup well in this one, sitting top 10 in the country in 3-point percentage allowed (24.1%) over the last month