🏀 March Madness Survivor Picks Today 2026: Best Friday Strategy (March 27)

If you've made it this far in your survivor pool, give yourself a pat on the back because being alive five days into a tournament that's already cut its field from 64 to 12 is impressive, but even more impressive would be nailing your March Madness survivor picks today.

After going 8-for-8 in my March Madness survivor pool picks on the first weekend, the first day of the Sweet 16 was a close call (Purdue nearly ended me), but I managed to stay perfect, and tonight I'm playing it safe with two more top-2 seeds.

Don't miss our March Madness bracket predictions for the 2026 NCAA Tournament. 

📊 Friday survivor pool power rankings: Sweet 16

For more on survivor pools, check out my March Madness survivor pool strategy guide. Teams I've already used in my two pools are bolded.

🎯 Best Friday March Madness survivor picks

Checkout our March Madness second-chance bracket picks.

Best survivor pool pick today: Iowa State

Although All-American Joshua Jefferson is a game-time decision, Iowa State has the most advantageous matchup on the second day of the Sweet 16. The Cyclones are No. 5 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and allow the fourth-lowest effective field-goal percentage in the country (49.6%).

Tennessee's offense is sporadic, ranking No. 150 in effective field-goal percentage (51.9%) and No. 225 in turnover rate (17.3%). That's going to be a problem against an Iowa State team that just held Kentucky to 63 points without Jefferson.

Tennessee's Rick Barnes has made it past the Sweet 16 just five times in 29 tournaments.

Safest survivor pool pick today: Michigan

It can be risky business to ride with a No. 1 seed in the Sweet 16, given that you'll likely need at least two on the board still by the Elite Eight. But with the way the schedule falls on the second day of the Sweet 16, there's no shame in going with the team that leads the nation in net rating (+37.82).

Michigan has a Monstar-like frontcourt, which has Dusty May's team top 10 in the country in both effective field-goal percentage (58.7%) and effective field-goal percentage allowed (45.2%).

Against an Alabama team that's No. 60 in defensive efficiency and cannot force turnovers (No. 358 in forced turnover rate), Yaxel Lendeborg and Co. should be able to bully their way to victory. 

Our Alabama vs. Michigan prediction projects a 13-point win for the Wolverines.

Riskiest survivor pool pick today: Duke

Although some believe that St. John's and Rick Pitino will pull the upset, the reason Duke is risky is because of their path to the championship game. Saving the Blue Devils is a must, since they will not have to play a No. 1 seed in the Final Four, unlike Arizona and Michigan.

With Jon Scheyer's team already getting Patrick Ngongba back and expecting Caleb Foster to return soon, Duke increasingly looks like the best bet to reach the championship game, despite their March Madness odds being just the third-shortest.

While the Red Storm are a feisty team, our St. John's vs. Duke prediction projects a 7-point Blue Devils win.

Duke would then face either Michigan State or UConn, both of whom are easier opponents on paper than what the Wildcats and Wolverines are expecting in the Elite Eight. 

🚫 Friday survivor picks to avoid (March 27)

Have questions, like what is a March Madness survivor pool? We've got answers.

❌ Worst survivor pool pick today: Michigan State

At their best, both Michigan State and UConn look like teams capable of pushing to the Final Four. However, neither has been consistent this season, with both programs sitting outside the top 20 in offensive efficiency and outside the top 30 in effective field-goal percentage.

These are similar teams. Both led by championship-caliber head coaches, carried by their defensive play, and leaning on feisty point guards and physical frontcourts. Their similarities make it tough to feel strongly one way in this matchup, which is why UConn is just -1.5.

With our Michigan State vs. UConn prediction projecting a 2-point win for Tom Izzo's team as an underdog, it's best to stay away from this game when it comes to your survivor picks.

💵 My survivor picks for March Madness

I'm making two separate survivor pool picks each day for two different survivor pools. 

🏀 March Madness game predictions: Sweet 16

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.