🏀 March Madness Survivor Picks Today 2026: Best Saturday Strategy (March 21)
Round 2 of the NCAA Tournament is here, and if you've survived and advanced through the first two days, making March Madness survivor picks today is decisively harder than when every quality team was playing a double-digit seed in the first round.
After Darryn Peterson and Co. had me sweating out taking Kansas with one of my two March Madness survivor pool picks until well past midnight last night, I'm hoping for a smoother day on Saturday by taking a pair of Big Ten powers.
Don't miss our March Madness bracket predictions for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
📊 Saturday Survivor Pool Power Rankings: Day 3
For more on survivor pools, check out my March Madness survivor pool strategy guide. Teams I've already used are bolded.
| Rank | Team | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | No. 3 Illinois | No. 11 VCU |
| 2 | No. 3 Michigan State | No. 6 Louisville |
| 3 | No. 4 Arkansas | No. 12 High Point |
| 4 | No. 2 Houston | No. 10 Texas A&M |
| 5 | No. 3 Gonzaga | No. 11 Texas |
| 6 | No. 5 Vanderbilt | No. 4 Nebraska |
| 7 | No. 1 Duke | No. 9 TCU |
| 8 | No. 1 Michigan | No. 9 Saint Louis |
🎯 Best Saturday March Madness survivor picks
Best survivor pool pick today: Michigan State
Am I fearful that so many of us underestimated Louisville when we bought into the idea that South Florida would upset the Cardinals in Round 1? Slightly, but Louisville nearly blew a 22-point lead, and Pat Kelsey is now 0-6 ATS in the NCAA Tournament ... Michigan State is a 4.5-point favorite today.
Tom Izzo is Mr. March for a reason, and the Spartans are No. 4 in offensive efficiency since the beginning of the month (133.6).
All-American Jeremy Fears Jr., who leads the nation in assist rate (52.6%), should be able to outpace a Cardinals offense missing Mikel Brown Jr.
⚔️ A tough road ahead
Full disclosure, our Shane Thurston has the Cardinals pulling off the upset in his Louisville vs. Michigan State prediction, and it's unlikely the Spartans will give us a stress-free ride into the fourth day of the NCAA Tournament.
However, Michigan State is the best pick on the board because a win likely pits Sparty against UConn in the Sweet 16 and Duke in the Elite Eight. This is the last time MSU is worth considering, so burning Izzo's team now is ideal.
Safest survivor pool pick today: Illinois
At its best, Illinois looks like a legitimate March Madness odds contender that could give Florida and Houston a run for their money in the South region. The Fighting Illini are an offensive juggernaut, ranking top 10 nationally in offensive efficiency (131.8), turnover rate (13%), and offensive rebound rate (39.2%).
The tallest team in the country, averaging 6-foot-7, has a mismatch against a No. 11-seed VCU team that is ranked outside the top 100 in effective field percentage (52.6%) and effective field percentage allowed (48.9%) this month.
The Rams are also just 48 hours removed from needing a 19-point comeback to beat a struggling North Carolina program in OT. I don't expect the Rams to have the legs to win a shootout, and our VCU vs. Illinois prediction projects a 9-point win for the Fighting Illini.
Riskiest survivor pool pick today: Gonzaga
It's hard to get a feel for this Gonzaga team, especially with Braden Huff out.
At its best, the Zags look poised to reach the Sweet 16 for the 10th time in the last 11 years under Mark Few behind the play of a defense ranked No. 10 in efficiency (121.3) and an offense that's top 25 in effective field goal percentage (55.8%).
While our Texas vs. Gonzaga prediction has the Bulldogs coming out on top, it has the Longhorns covering as a 6.5-point underdog. Texas has already won two games outright as an underdog in the NCAA Tournament this year.
That's why I'm fearful of taking an uninspiring Gonzaga team, despite this being the last time you can reasonably pick them in survivor.
🚫 Saturday survivor picks to avoid (March 21)
Have questions, like what is a March Madness survivor pool? We've got answers.
| Rank | Team | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | No. 1 Michigan | No. 9 Saint Louis |
| 2 | No. 1 Duke | No. 9 TCU |
| 3 | No. 5 Vanderbilt | No. 4 Nebraska |
❌ Worst survivor pool pick today: Michigan
You know the drill, we can't be taking No. 1 seeds in survivor on the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament if we want to have a reasonable shot at winning our pools. This is even more true with how chalky the tournament is shaping up to be after favorites went 16-0 straight up yesterday.
So, we have to save a team like Michigan, which is one of just four programs in the country ranked in the top 10 in adjusted offensive (127.1) and defensive (89.7) efficiency. There's also reason to believe that Saint Louis could make it a game with the Wolverines.
The Billikens are the No. 2-ranked team in our Cinderella Index, and are the only team in the country ranked in the top five in effective field goal percentage (59.9%) and effective field goal percentage allowed (44.6%).
Our Saint Louis vs. Michigan prediction has Robbie "Cream Abdul-Jabbar" Avila leading the Billikens to a cover.
💵 My survivor picks for March Madness
I'm making two separate survivor pool picks each day for two different survivor pools.
| Round (day) | Pick | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Round 1 (Thursday) | Arkansas ✅ | Arkansas 97, Hawaii 78 |
| Round 1 (Thursday) | Vanderbilt ✅ | Vanderbilt 78, McNeese 68 |
| Round 1 (Friday) | Kansas ✅ | Kansas 68, Cal Baptist 60 |
| Round 1 (Friday) | Virginia ✅ | Virginia 82, Wright State 73 |
| Round 2 (Saturday) | Illinois | TBD |
| Round 2 (Saturday) | Michigan State | TBD |
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