🏀 March Madness Survivor Picks Today 2026: Best Thursday Strategy (March 19)

Round 1 of the NCAA Tournament tips off at 12:15 p.m. ET today, with 16 matchups over the course of nearly 12 hours, and my March Madness survivor picks today are looking at two teams that just squared off in the SEC Championship.

While there are several March Madness survivor pool picks that entice me heading into Day 1 of the NCAA Tournament, my absolute favorite team to take in the first round makes my survivor play on Thursday an easy one.

Don't miss our March Madness bracket predictions for the 2026 NCAA Tournament. 

📊 Thursday Survivor Pool Power Rankings: Day 1

Don't miss our March Madness bracket predictions for the 2026 NCAA Tournament. 

🎯 Best Thursday March Madness survivor picks

Best survivor pool pick today: Arkansas

Hawaii would have been a fun bracket buster in Round 1, if not for this matchup. The bracket fell in the worst possible way for Hawaii's no-help defense, taking on a Razorbacks team that's top 10 in the country in offensive rating (122.5) and PPG (89.9).

John Calipari's team loves to play ISO-ball, especially with SEC Player of the Year Darius Acuff Jr. He's the reason they score so much while maintaining the No. 1 turnover rate in the country  (12.3%). 

Arkansas will likely play Wisconsin in Round 2, so there's no need to save them.

Safest survivor pool pick today: Vanderbilt

While McNeese pulled off the No. 12 vs. No. 5 upset last year, I don't expect it again, and neither does our March Madness Cinderella Index. That's because Vanderbilt has the highest net rating of any non-top-three seed in the NCAA Tournament (+28.50) and ranks top 10 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (126.8).

McNeese wins games by forcing turnovers, but the Cowboys haven't seen an offense like the one the Commodores deploy. Vanderbilt is top 15 in the country in turnover rate (13.3%) and has two prolific guards in Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles.

The Commodores have a tough path following Round 1 and are worth using early.

Riskiest survivor pool pick today: Ohio State

Ohio State's matchup with TCU is the very first game of Round 1, and a Buckeyes loss would mean immediately being out of your survivor pool. But it's hard to ignore how strong Ohio State has looked down the stretch ... Jake Diebler's team is top five in the country in offensive efficiency (136.6) and effective field goal percentage (63.5%) since the start of March.

With that said, Ohio State is just a 2.5-point betting favorite, and even with all-time leading scorer Bruce Thornton, TCU's defense will be a tough one to penetrate.

While taking a team outside the top five seeds is a baller move, it's also too risky to justify.

🚫 Thursday survivor picks to avoid (March 19)

Have questions, like what is a March Madness survivor pool? We've got answers.

❌ Worst survivor pool pick today: Duke

Obviously, the team ranked No. 1 in the country, and No. 1 in net rating (+38.88), is going to win today. But wasting a March Madness odds favorite in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament is how you set yourself up to lose in a survivor pool.

The Blue Devils are going to blow by Siena as a 27.5-point betting favorite, but there are teams just as certain to win today that won't be needed in the Sweet 16 and beyond.

Using any of the No. 1 seeds in the first two rounds is a recipe for disaster, so steer clear and focus on your favorite No. 4 and No. 5 seeds in Round 1.