🏀 Louisville vs. Michigan State Prediction & Picks: March Madness Round 2 (March 21)
There are probably several bettors who will look at this matchup and blindly back Tom Izzo's No. 3-seeded Michigan State Spartans in a March Madness battle against the No. 6 Louisville Cardinals.
Given his track record, it's difficult to fault you. But with the Spartans favored by 4.5 points, allow me to make the case for a contrarian Louisville vs. Michigan State prediction as part of our March Madness predictions before tipoff at 2:45 p.m. ET on Saturday in KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y., on CBS.
🏀 Louisville vs. Michigan State picks & odds: March Madness Round 2
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville +4.5 | -108 via DraftKings | 1.04u -> 1u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Louisville ML | +165 via BetMGM | 0.4u -> 0.66u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Ryan Conwell Over 3.5 assists | +135 via bet365 | 0.5u -> 0.67u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 1.94 units | Max profit: 2.33 units
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
🏆 Who will win Louisville vs. Michigan State?
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
I predict Louisville will pull off the upset in a game that should come down to the very end. The market has overestimated the impact of Mikel Brown's absence, given the Cardinals are 4-1 without him in March.
Score prediction: Louisville 76, Michigan State 74
💰 Louisville vs. Michigan State prediction & best bet
Louisville +4.5 (-108)
Hand up, I'm someone who bet South Florida +5.5 (shoutout that backdoor cover) on Thursday. But that had more to do with my belief in the Bulls than anything else. And March Madness betting is about adapting when there is value, such as in this game. KenPom projects Michigan State to win by two, suggesting the market is overrating the impact of Louisville being without Brown.
According to Will Warren of Basket Under Review, Louisville actually has a better net rating with Brown off the floor this year. That includes some disastrous 3-point luck, as the Cardinals were shooting 31.7% from deep without Brown entering the NCAA Tournament. Louisville got better 3-point variance in Round 1, knocking down 13 of its 25 triples.
There is a chance this line touches +5 by Saturday, but I'm backing Louisville at +4 or better as a five-star play anyway.
🔥 Best Louisville vs. Michigan State player prop bet
Ryan Conwell Over 3.5 assists (+135)
The one area where Louisville really misses Brown is having a lead offensive engine. The team's assist rate has dropped 3% without Brown.
Ryan Conwell has become the team's de facto point guard, leading the team in usage rate without Brown. But he didn't really produce assist numbers until the win over South Florida, when he dished six dimes. Could that be a sign of things to come?
Well, to be honest, this is more about a plus-money price in a favorable matchup. Michigan State ranks 288th in assist rate allowed (56.2%), so I see Conwell getting a few opportunities to find open teammates. This prop is only available at bet365.
🚀 Louisville vs. Michigan State same-game parlay
With bet365 the only shop offering player props right now, there wasn't much debate as to where to place this Louisville vs. Michigan parlay. I opted to take the Cardinals' spread instead of their moneyline, but you could swap those to increase the payout.
💵 Louisville vs. Michigan State SGP picks
- Louisville +4.5
- Ryan Conwell Over 3.5 assists
Best odds: +290 (0.1u -> 0.29u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-25 | +1.01 units ✅ | 3.3% ✅ |
| Game picks | 8-5 | +3.44 units ✅ | 29.3% ✅ |
| Player props | 6-6 | -2.15 units ❌ | -23.7% ❌ |
| Parlays | 1-8 | -0.31 units ❌ | -22.1% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Louisville vs. Michigan State: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
I think the loss of Brown isn't as big a deal as it might seem, so I'm targeting the Cardinals as a frisky underdog against a Spartans team that often gets overrated in March.
Izzo is a legendary coach, but he's not immune to early upsets. The Spartans haven't made it out the first weekend three different times in the last five years.
My favorite way to take advantage of this potential value is by backing Louisville's spread, though I've allocated some smaller units on plus-money prices if I'm completely right about this game.
📊 Live Louisville vs. Michigan State odds: March Madness Round 2
Michigan State is still a 4.5-point favorite after the line started there, while the total has climbed from 150.5 to 151.5 at some shops.
Given Izzo's track record in what could be a coaching mismatch, I'd expect the Spartans to get more love before tipoff.
📈 Louisville vs. Michigan State betting trends
| Louisville | Statistic | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| 24-10 | Record | 26-7 |
| 16-18 | ATS record | 18-15 |
| 14-20 | O/U record | 16-17 |
| 20th | KenPom ranking | 9th |
| 123.6 (22nd) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 123.1 (24th) |
| 98.6 (25th) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 94.6 (13th) |
📺 How to watch Louisville vs. Michigan State: March Madness Round 2
- Date: Saturday, March 21
- Tipoff: 2:45 p.m. ET
- Location: KeyBank Center (Buffalo, N.Y.)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: CBS App
Related Articles
