🏀 Long Island vs. Arizona Prediction & Picks: March Madness Round 1 (March 20)
On Friday, No. 16 Long Island will look to do the improbable and knock off No. 1 Arizona. And while that would be a great story, I don't know if Arizona is getting enough credit, even as a 31.5-point favorite.
My best Long Island vs. Arizona prediction for the tilt at Viejas Arena in San Diego calls for a blowout victory, as Arizona's offense, averaging 86.1 points per game, lights up a defense that allows 71.1 points per game. Tipoff is set for 1:35 p.m. ET, airing on TNT.
For more coverage of the tournament, check out our best March Madness predictions.
🏀 Long Island vs. Arizona picks & odds: March Madness Round 1
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona -31.5 | -110 via bet365 | 2u -> 1.82u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Under 151.5 | -110 via bet365 | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐ |
| Tobe Awaka Over 9.5 rebounds | +102 via bet365 | 1.5u -> 1.53u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 4.5 units | Max profit: 4.26 units
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🏆 Who will win Long Island vs. Arizona?
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
I'm taking Arizona to beat Long Island by 38 points, as the Wildcats begin their quest for their first national title since 1997. Long Island simply won't have an answer for Arizona's offense, as the Wildcats score nearly 100 points, while the defense shuts down an undersized opponent.
Score prediction: Arizona 94, Long Island 56
💰 Long Island vs. Arizona prediction & best bet
Arizona -31.5 (-110)
The first thing I notice about this matchup is the size mismatch. Long Island's tallest starter is 6'6", while Arizona has multiple key players 6'7" and taller, including 7'2" Motiejus Krivas. Additionally, Long Island doesn't shoot well, averaging just 6.0 made 3-pointers per game, the 326th-most in the country.
Arizona rolled through nonconference play, winning six games by at least 30 points and scoring at least 93 points in six of its eight games against non-power conference teams. The Wildcats should reach that threshold again against a Long Island team that allowed at least 85 points six times this season.
🔥 Best Long Island vs. Arizona player prop bet
Tobe Awaka Over 9.5 rebounds (+102)
Awaka is the top rebounder on the third-best rebounding team in the nation. He's averaging 9.5 boards per game and has 15 double-digit rebounding performances, and he's about to take on a team that ranks 160th in rebounds per contest.
The only reason this isn't a five-star play is that Awaka could see fewer minutes than usual in a blowout. That said, he grabbed 18 rebounds in 19 minutes against Utah Tech and 16 in 20 minutes against Denver. He's also only played fewer than 17 minutes in three games all season, and each of those performances came against ranked teams that got him in foul trouble.
🚀 Long Island vs. Arizona same-game parlay
Arizona is going to dominate this game thanks to its high-scoring offense and ability to clean up the boards against a far smaller opponent. Yet, while I expect Arizona to score well into the 90s, I'm putting the Under in this parlay because I'm relying almost exclusively on one team to hit this number. And in a blowout late, I expect Arizona to slow the game down, as the Wildcats prepare for their next game.
💵 Long Island vs. Arizona SGP picks
- Arizona -31.5
- Under 151.5
- Tobe Awaka Over 9.5 rebounds
Best odds: +636 via bet365 (1u -> 6.36u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-14 | +1.09 units ✅ | +3.6% ✅ |
| Game picks | 6-8 | -1.83 units ❌ | -9.6% ❌ |
| Player props | 2-2 | -0.87 units ❌ | -13.3% ❌ |
| Parlays | 2-4 | +3.79 units ✅ | +75.7% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Long Island vs. Arizona: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
Even though Arizona could get out to a huge lead early and ease up in preparation for the second round, I love the Wildcats to cover 31.5 points. They are a nightmare for Long Island in every way, and I wouldn't be surprised if Long Island's final score is in the 40s. The lack of offensive success for Long Island is also why I'm backing the Under for one unit and Awaka to pull down at least 10 boards in a total mismatch. I just don't want to go overboard with Awaka in case he plays less than usual.
📊 Live Long Island vs. Arizona odds: March Madness First Round
Arizona opened as a 29.5-point favorite and is now favored by 31.5. I expect this number to sit where it is until tip-off, as this is a very large spread. However, I'd be willing to play up to 35.5, though at that point I'm only making the spread a one-unit play. As for the total, the number opened at 150.5, briefly increased to 152.5, and is now back down to 151.5. With this kind of movement, I'd be shocked if the number ever drops below 150 or climbs above 153.
📈 Long Island vs. Arizona betting trends
| Long Island | Statistic | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| 24-10 | Record | 32-2 |
| 17-17 | ATS record | 19-14-1 |
| 14-20 | O/U record | 17-17 |
| 216th | KenPom ranking | 2nd |
| 105.6 (239th) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 127.7 (5th) |
| 109.6 (186th) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 90.0 (3rd) |
📺 How to watch Long Island vs. Arizona: March Madness First Round
- Date: Friday, March 20
- Tipoff: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Location: Viejas Arena (San Diego)
- TV: TNT
- Streaming: March Madness Live
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