🏀 Kentucky vs. Iowa State Prediction & Picks: March Madness Second Round (March 22)
After it survived in the best game of the opening round of March Madness, I don't see No. 7 Kentucky breaking through against No. 2 Iowa State's elite defense. My Kentucky vs. Iowa State prediction expects the Cyclones to force the Wildcats into enough mistakes to pull away.
The action tips off from Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Sunday at 2:45 p.m. ET (CBS). Iowa State is a 4.5-point betting favorite as part of our March Madness predictions.
π Kentucky vs. Iowa State picks & odds: March Madness Second Round
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa State -4.5 | -110 via BetMGM | 2.2u -> 2u | ββββ |
| Kentucky Under 70.5 points | -104 via FanDuel | 1.04u -> 1u | βββ |
| Otega Oweh Under 23.5 points | -110 via bet365 | 1.1u -> 1u | βββ |
Total wagered: 4.34 units | Max profit: 4.0 units
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
π Who will win Kentucky vs. Iowa State?
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
I'm taking Iowa State to win this one by eight points. Even with Joshua Jefferson's status looking bleak, the Cyclones should frustrate Kentucky into turnovers and scoring droughts to pull away in the second half.
Score prediction: Iowa State 77, Kentucky 69
π° Kentucky vs. Iowa State prediction & best bet
Iowa State -4.5 (-110)
Kentucky has largely taken care of the basketball lately behind solid play from Denzel Aberdeen, but after a handsy Santa Clara team turned over the Wildcats 11 times on Friday, I have concerns in a matchup against an Iowa State team that forces 15.3 turnovers per game (5th in nation).
Iowa State also shoots at one of the best three-point percentages in the nation (38.9%), which it could lean on even more in the event that star forward Joshua Jefferson remains out for this game. The emergence of guards Killyan Toure and Jamarion Batemon as capable scoring threats should help the Cyclonesβwho have now vaulted up to 17th nationally in KenPom's offensive rating categoryβto feed the machine without Jefferson.
π₯ Best Kentucky vs. Iowa State player prop bet
Otega Oweh Under 23.5 points (-110)
Otega Oweh did it all for the Wildcats against Santa Clara, but this matchup against Iowa State reminds me more of the way the Florida Gators limited him to just 10 points in the SEC Tournament in his previous game.
Florida's sixth-best defensive rating (KenPom) in the nation ranks one spot behind Iowa State's unit. Not to mention the way the Cyclones play a significantly slower pace (208th adjusted tempo vs. 26th for Florida) that could further suppress possessions and scoring.
That's particularly likely in that even that Oweh is a contributor to my turnover prognostication; against Florida, he had four giveaways. Prior to his 35 points in Friday's First Round game, Oweh had fallen short of this scoring line in three straight games.
π Kentucky vs. Iowa State same-game parlay
Iowa State's defense frustrating Kentucky and forcing the Wildcats into turnovers should lead to the Cyclones covering the spread in a low-scoring game. To correlate to those expectations, we'll include our player prop projecting Otega Oweh to stay below his lofty scoring line.
💵 Kentucky vs. Iowa State SGP picks
- Iowa State -4.5
- Kentucky Under 70.5 points
- Otega Oweh Under 23.5 points
Best odds: +240 via bet365 (0.5u -> 1.2u)
π΅ My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 9, 2026.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-35-1 | -17.22 units β | -29.4% β |
| Game picks | 4-7-1 | -4.7 units β | -35.6% β |
| Moneyline | 3-0 | +3 units β | +75% β |
| Over/Under | 5-8-1 | -2.83 units β | -17% β |
| Player props | 5-7 | -3.73 units β | -26.3% β |
| Parlays | 1-12 | -7.81 units β | -82.2% β |
π‘ How I'm betting Kentucky vs. Iowa State: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
I'm playing Iowa State -4.5 at 2.0 units while backing down slightly in bet size when it comes to Kentucky's team total Under 70.5.
I like the value of that team prop from FanDuel (-104) but I don't want to negate my potential profit from the Cyclones covering the spread by misreading the game flow given the potential for Kentucky's offense to outperform my expectations for them.
π Live Kentucky vs. Iowa State odds: March Madness Second Round
The line indicates that Joshua Jefferson will miss this game, and the books are giving Kentucky a ton of respect here. I anticipate this game ending with a larger margin than what the line indicates, and one of the reasons I am backing Iowa State.
π Kentucky vs. Iowa State betting trends
| Kentucky | Statistic | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| 22-13 | Record | 28-7 |
| 18-17 | ATS record | 21-13-1 |
| 18-17 | O/U record | 16-19 |
| 28th | KenPom ranking | 6th |
| 120.8 (37th) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 124.2 (17th) |
| 99.1 (27th) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 91.5 (5th) |
πΊ How to watch Kentucky vs. Iowa State: March Madness Second Round
- Date: Sunday, March 22
- Tipoff: 2:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Enterprise Center (St. Louis)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: March Madness Live
Related Articles
