🏀 Iowa vs. Illinois Prediction & Picks: March Madness Elite Eight (March 28)
The South Region final features a Big Ten matchup on Saturday, as No. 9 Iowa looks to avenge a regular-season loss against No. 3 Illinois and advance to the Hawkeyes' first Final Four since 1980. Tipoff from Toyota Center in Houston is set for 6:09 p.m. ET (TBS).
My best Iowa vs. Illinois prediction focuses on the slow pace at which both these teams play. Illinois is a 6.5-point betting favorite, and while I like Iowa to cover, my best March Madness predictions for this contest focus on Unders.
🏀 Iowa vs. Illinois picks & odds: March Madness Elite Eight
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa +6.5 | -105 via bet365 | 1.5u -> 1.43u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Under 138.5 | -105 via FanDuel | 2u -> 1.94u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Bennett Stirtz Under 19.5 points | -120 via FanDuel | 2u -> 1.66u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 5.5 units | Max profit: 5.03 units
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🏆 Who will win Iowa vs. Illinois?
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
I'm taking Illinois to win a low-scoring contest by three points, as the Fighting Illini's 28th-ranked shooting defense makes Iowa's 22nd-ranked shooting offense miss more shots than usual.
Score prediction: Illinois 66, Iowa 63
💰 Iowa vs. Illinois prediction & best bet
Under 138.5 (-105)
Iowa has the fifth-slowest pace of play in the country, according to KenPom. And Illinois doesn't play much faster, ranking 286th in the same category.
The Hawkeyes are shooting 49% from the floor, which is how they've overcome the slow tempo. But Illinois is allowing opponents to make just 40.7% of their field goal attempts, and in the first meeting, Iowa shot just 41% from the floor.
Illinois is averaging 84.2 points per game, but Iowa is allowing just 66.1, and in a slow game, I expect Iowa's defense to get the better of this matchup.
🔥 Best Iowa vs. Illinois player prop bet
Bennett Stirtz Under 19.5 points (-120)
Stirtz is Iowa's leading scorer, averaging 19.7 points per game. While he scored 20 against Nebraska, he's scored 17 or fewer in four of his last five games. He shoots 47.7% from the field and is averaging 2.4 3-pointers per game, but in his first meeting with Illinois, the Fighting Illini smothered him.
In that game, Stirtz shot just 29.4% from the field and finished with 12 points. While some might consider that an off night for Stirtz, given how well Illinois' defense has defended shooters this year, I think the performance will be repeated in the Elite Eight. After all, Illinois' swarming defense just held Houston to 34% from the floor.
The price for this Under may seem steep, but bet365 is offering the same price for Under 18.5, so FanDuel is actually offering a great deal.
🚀 Iowa vs. Illinois same-game parlay
For as much as I've praised Illinois' defense, Iowa's is excellent as well. So while the Under is my favorite play of the game, I also like Iowa to cover the spread, as it simply feels too large for this type of game. Whether Iowa wins or loses, I still expect Stirtz to struggle from the floor. While this would normally inflate the price of this parlay, especially with Iowa covering, the price for Stirtz's Under is so expensive that it's not helping the odds much.
💵 Iowa vs. Illinois SGP picks
- Iowa +6.5
- Under 138.5
- Bennett Stirtz Under 19.5 points
Best odds: +488 via FanDuel (1u -> 4.88u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36-44 | +33.51 units ✅ | +31.5% ✅ |
| Game picks | 26-19 | +20.90 units ✅ | +31.7% ✅ |
| Player props | 6-10 | -9.23 units ❌ | -37.7% ❌ |
| Parlays | 4-15 | +21.84 units ✅ | +136.5% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Iowa vs. Illinois: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
The first meeting between these two teams saw 144 points, but Illinois and Iowa play very slow styles of basketball. Therefore, I'll wager two units on the Under. And while Illinois already beat Iowa on the Hawkeyes' home floor earlier this season, 6.5 points feels like a lot, especially with how Iowa is currently playing, so I'll risk 1.5 units on Iowa +6.5.
Stirtz is Iowa's leading scorer, but the latest March Madness betting trends actually suggest he's going to struggle in this game, so I'll risk two units on his Under.
📊 Live Iowa vs. Illinois odds: March Madness Elite Eight
The spread opened with Illinois favored by 6.5, and it hasn't moved. However, the price has increased to -115 for -6.5 at many of the best sports betting sites, suggesting this may climb to 7.5 before long.
As for the total, the number opened at 141.5, and it has since dropped to 138.5. That's a significant drop, but considering how well Illinois' defense played against Houston, I wouldn't be surprised if it keeps decreasing.
📈 Iowa vs. Illinois betting trends
| Iowa | Statistic | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| 24-12 | Record | 27-8 |
| 21-15 | ATS record | 21-14 |
| 20-16 | O/U record | 15-20 |
| 22nd | KenPom ranking | 4th |
| 123.8 (20th) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 131.4 (2nd) |
| 99.9 (32nd) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 97.5 (21st) |
📺 How to watch Iowa vs. Illinois: March Madness Elite Eight
- Date: Saturday, March 28
- Tipoff: 6:09 p.m. ET
- Location: Toyota Center(Houston)
- TV: TBS/truTV
- Streaming: March Madness Live
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