🏀 Iowa vs. Florida Prediction & Picks: March Madness Round 2 (March 22)
No. 9 Iowa will try to pull off a massive upset of No. 1 Florida and advance to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1999.
My best Iowa vs. Florida prediction for Sunday's 7:10 p.m. ET (TBS/March Madness Live) March Madness game at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Fla., focuses on Iowa's ability to slow this game down and disrupt Florida's offense. Florida is favored by 10.5.
For more coverage of the NCAA Tournament, check out our March Madness predictions.
🏀 Iowa vs. Florida picks & odds: March Madness Round 2
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa +10.5 | -110 via DraftKings | 2u -> 1.82u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Under 145.5 | -110 via DraftKings | 2u -> 1.82u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Rueben Chinyelu Over 11.5 rebounds | -105 via bet365 | 2u -> 1.9u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 6 units | Max profit: 5.54 units
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🏆 Who will win Iowa vs. Florida?
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
I'm taking Florida to win a low-scoring game by four points, as Iowa uses tempo and offensive execution to keep this game close until late. Ultimately, Florida's offensive rebounding will be too much for Iowa to overcome.
Score prediction: Florida 69, Iowa 65
💰 Iowa vs. Florida prediction & best bet
Iowa +10.5 (-110)
Iowa could realistically pull this upset for two reasons. First, Iowa ranks fifth-slowest in adjusted tempo according to KenPom, which will limit Florida's possessions. Second, Iowa has the 26th-best shooting percentage in the country, averaging 48.8% from the floor. Iowa has lost by single digits to Iowa State, Illinois, Purdue, and Michigan this season, while also totally instilling its will in a 57-52 win over Nebraska.
Additionally, while Iowa allows opponents to shoot 33.7% from 3-point range (182nd), the Gators are shooting just 31.2% from deep, which ranks 322nd nationally.
🔥 Best Iowa vs. Florida player prop bet
Rueben Chinyelu Over 11.5 rebounds (-105)
Florida is the best rebounding team in the country, averaging 45.7 per game, and Chinyelu is a big part of the reason why. Chinyelu ranks third in the nation with 11.5 rebounds per game, and he's averaging 4.0 offensive boards per game. He also has at least 12 rebounds in 16 games this season.
The Hawkeyes allow the sixth-fewest offensive rebounds per game, but this is a strength-vs-strength matchup, as Florida is averaging more offensive rebounds than any other team this year. And Iowa doesn't have anyone who can compete with Chinyelu down low, as no Iowa player averages more than 4.7 rebounds per game.
🚀 Iowa vs. Florida same-game parlay
Iowa has already faced many of the best teams in the country, and while the Hawkeyes have rarely won, they have often succeeded in slowing the game down and losing by fewer than 10. Therefore, those two pieces of this parlay work hand-in-hand. Though there will be limited possessions, Florida is the best offensive rebounding team in the country, and Chinyelu will still hit his season average in this low-scoring contest.
💵 Iowa vs. Florida SGP picks
- Iowa +10.5
- Under 145.5
- Rueben Chinyelu Over 11.5 rebounds
Best odds: +612 via Sportsbook (1u -> 6.12u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-34 | +34.28 units ✅ | 42.1% ✅ |
| Game picks | 20-15 | +16.16 units ✅ | +33.3% ✅ |
| Player props | 4-8 | -7.72 units ❌ | -37.7% ❌ |
| Parlays | 4-11 | +25.84 units ✅ | +215.3% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Iowa vs. Florida: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
I'm going bigger than usual on this game thanks to Iowa's experience against the best teams in the country. Iowa's pace will bother Florida and get the Gators out of their rhythm, which is why I'm risking two units on Iowa covering and the Under. And while Iowa does a great job of preventing offensive rebounds, no one has been able to slow down the Gators this year, so I'll risk two units on Chinyelu to still get 12 rebounds in a low-possession game.
For more on this game, check out our latest March Madness betting trends.
📊 Live Iowa vs. Florida odds: March Madness Round 2
If you're tailing me, then get in sooner rather than later. The spread opened with Florida favored by 11.5, but the number has dropped to 10.5, and the total opened at 146.5, but it has dropped to 145.5. I expect the total to keep dropping, but I'd take this as low as 140.5, so we're not in danger of this getting too low to be playable. The spread should drop, but I think that the public will likely back the No. 1 seed if this total drops to 9.5, immediately pushing it back to 10.5.
📈 Iowa vs. Florida betting trends
| Iowa | Statistic | Florida |
|---|---|---|
| 22-12 | Record | 27-7 |
| 19-15 | ATS record | 18-16 |
| 19-15 | O/U record | 14-19-1 |
| 23rd | KenPom ranking | 4th |
| 122.4 (29th) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 125.8 (9th) |
| 99.6 (31st) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 91.7 (6th) |
📺 How to watch Iowa vs. Florida: March Madness Round 2
- Date: Sunday, March 22
- Tipoff: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Location: Benchmark International Arena (Tampa, Fla.)
- TV: TBS
- Streaming: March Madness Live
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