Iowa State vs. Purdue Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Betting Preview for Dec. 6

Before the college football conference championship action gets underway this afternoon, I am breaking down one of college basketball’s marquee non-conference matchups with my Iowa State vs. Purdue prediction.

No. 1 Purdue is a 4.5-point betting favorite over No. 10 Iowa State in this battle of 8-0 teams, which tips off from Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Ind., at noon ET (CBS). The fact that the Cyclones are likely to be without the services of one of their best players once again has me siding with the Boilermakers as my top play.

✅ Iowa State vs. Purdue predictions

🏀 Iowa State vs. Purdue best bet & score prediction

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Purdue -4.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

This is a heavyweight matchup between programs with the two best regular-season non-conference records over the last four seasons (a combined 99-9). But tipping the scale in Purdue’s favor is the fact that Iowa State is likely to be without its biggest disruptor on defense once again.

The Tamin Lipsey effect 

College basketball fans around the country may be deprived of an elite matchup of point guards between Tamin Lipsey and Braden Smith. Lipsey has missed each of Iowa State’s last three games with a lower body injury. 

His veteran presence with 108 games under his belt would be sorely missed if he does not suit up today, especially since he scored in double figures in all five games this season while posting a 26-to-4 assist-to-turnover ratio. 

Where Lipsey would most be missed is on the perimeter, trying to guard Wooden Award odds candidate Braden Smith. The Cyclones are still forcing turnovers at the nation’s highest rate (26.9%), but Purdue has turned the ball over just 14% of the time thanks to Smith’s steady handling and ninth-ranked assist rate nationally.

Smith is on pace for a career-best 16.2% turnover rate, which he has improved each of the last four years. 

Purdue is 8-2 SU in its last 10 AP-top 10 showdowns dating to the 2021-22 season. After its Big Ten opener against Rutgers, it was one of four schools to rank in the top 30 nationally in field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, and free throw percentage. It was also one of eight to rank in the top 20 in each of KenPom’s offensive and defensive efficiency metrics.

Playing on Tuesday should not be an issue for the Boilermakers, who are 16-9 ATS in their last 25 games on 2-3 days’ rest since the start of last season. 

I am laying my $10 wager down at Caesars, the only one of the best sports betting sites charging less than -115 juice (53.49% implied odds) to lay the 4.5 points. Through its -110 odds, this wager would net $9.09 in profits with a Boilermakers cover.

Score prediction: Purdue 78, Iowa State 73

🆚 Iowa State vs. Purdue matchup to watch

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Killyan Toure vs. C.J. Cox

This is a strength vs. strength matchup with the nation’s second-leading offense in effective field goal percentage (Iowa State) facing a top-20 defense in adjusted defensive efficiency (Purdue).

Purdue’s C.J. Cox has been one of the top two-way players in the Big Ten. In his two most high-profile matchups, he held Alabama’s Labaron Philon to 11 points on 5-of-14 shooting (well below his 21.6 points per game average) and Texas Tech’s Christian Anderson to 13 points on 5-of-15 shooting (well below his 18.1 points per game average).

Killyan Toure has scored 13 or more in his last three games, but I expect a box score more in line with his six-point output against St. John’s with the pesky Cox drawing this defensive assignment.

There are some players I like to score today, Toure just isn't one of them. You can find them in my best college basketball player props today.

Best prop bet: Killyan Toure Under 8.5 points (-110 via bet365)

📊 Iowa State vs. Purdue odds

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📺 How to watch Iowa State vs. Purdue

• Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
• Tipoff: noon ET
• Location: Mackey Arena (West Lafayette, Ind.)
• TV: CBS

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