🏀 Iowa State vs. Arizona Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Picks Today (March 2)

This Big 12 matchup between No. 4 Iowa State and No. 2 Arizona is the only game on tonight’s college basketball slate between two AP-ranked teams, and is likely a showdown of teams that will earn top two seeds in the NCAA Tournament. You can catch the game on ESPN at 9 p.m. ET from the McKale Memorial Center in Tucson, Ariz., where the Wildcats are a 7.5-point betting favorite.

My Iowa State vs. Arizona prediction backs the home favorites, who have a big scheduling edge, not having to travel this past weekend. The Wildcats also received a big jolt with the return of freshman Koa Peat from injury, and his presence should pave the way for a big day offensively for a fellow Wildcats frontcourt player as my best player prop wager.

🏀 Iowa State vs. Arizona picks & odds today: March 2

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 2.73 units

💰 Iowa State vs. Arizona prediction & best bet

Arizona -7.5 (-110)

Arizona was a massive 10.5-point favorite against Kansas on Saturday, marking just the second time the Jayhawks were a double-digit underdog in the Bill Self era. The Wildcats proved oddsmakers correct with an 84-61 trouncing of Kansas that included a 19-0 run in the second half.

Arizona entered the weekend with the sixth-most 10-0 runs this season, and has only allowed one such run, which makes it difficult to come back against it when trailing. 

The Cyclones are a .500 road team in league play, and their conference-worst 65.5% team free throw shooting percentage should cost them.

Score prediction: Arizona 80, Iowa State 69

🔥 Best Iowa State vs. Arizona player prop bet

Motiejus Krivas Over 9.5 points (-115)

Iowa State’s defensive backcourt tandem of Killyan Toure and Tamin Lipsey should make life difficult for Arizona’s duo of Jayden Bradley and Brayden Burries. That is why I expect Tommy Lloyd’s crew to lean on its advantage inside, just like it did when it outscored Kansas 30-20 in the paint and attempted 23 more free throws.

Wildcats freshman forward Koa Peat returned from a three-game absence to score 12 points. But he played just 23 minutes, and Lloyd may be careful with his star when only having just one off day between games.

Motiejus Krivas has scored in double figures in six of the last eight games, and should be the focal point of the Wildcats inside, especially if Peat’s minutes are limited. 

🚀 Iowa State vs. Arizona same-game parlay

Arizona looks to have several mismatches inside against Iowa State’s thin frontcourt, which is why a cover, the full game Over, and the Over on Motiejus Krivas’ points all work well together. 

The Cyclones have also covered a higher percentage of their games at home (57.1%) than on the road (55.6%), and Arizona’s 70% cover rate against ranked opponents makes it a confident play.

💡 How I'm betting Iowa State vs. Arizona

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.

I generally prefer to make contrarian plays and not overreact to one day’s worth of results, which means I would normally buy low on Iowa State off a surprising home loss to Texas Tech. But the scheduling disadvantage scares me, and while the Cyclones covered their only game played on one day’s rest, that was at home by a half-point against a Houston team they trailed by 10 late.

That makes Krivas’ player prop my most confident wager, but I’m still risking one unit on all three plays.

📊 Live Iowa State vs. Arizona odds

While most of the best sports betting sites opened at Arizona -7.5, the only one that didn’t (DraftKings) quickly lowered its spread from -8.5 to -7.5 to align with the rest of the market. There has also been similarly limited movement on the total, as the only sportsbook to move off its opening number was FanDuel, which lowered the O/U from 148.5 to 147.5.

📈 Iowa State vs. Arizona betting trends

📺 How to watch Iowa State vs. Arizona

• Date: Monday, March 2
• Tipoff: 9 p.m. ET
• Location: McKale Memorial Center (Tucson, Ariz.)
• TV: ESPN