🏀 Iowa State vs. Arizona Prediction: Big 12 Tournament Semifinal Odds & Picks (March 13)
Tonight's Big 12 Tournament semifinal matchup between Iowa State and Arizona is the only game on Friday's college basketball slate between two teams ranked in the top-7 in the AP poll. The Cyclones figure to have the partisan crowd in a game that tips from T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Mo. at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN).
My Iowa State vs. Arizona prediction toyed with backing the Cyclones as moneyline underdogs, but I instead make the case for them as 4-point underdogs despite losing by 16 points at Arizona just 11 days ago. For Iowa State to stay closer or pull the upset in this rematch, it will need (and should get) a much better day offensively from Milan Momcilovic.
Stay atop all today's action with Rob Paul's college basketball conference tournament guide.
🏀 Iowa State vs. Arizona picks & odds: Big 12 Tournament Semifinal (March 13)
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| ML/ATS pick | Iowa State +4.5 (-110 via DraftKings) | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| O/U pick | Over 143 (-110 via Caesars) | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐ |
| Player prop pick | Milan Momcilovic Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (-135 via BetMGM) | 1u -> 0.74u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.56 units
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💰 Iowa State vs. Arizona prediction & best bet
Iowa State +4.5 (-110)
Iowa State should’ve come out with a lot of positives from its road loss at Arizona despite the 73-57 final score.
The Cyclones limited Arizona at the rim, holding it to a season-low 15 rim points. Iowa State also forced Arizona into a 23% turnover rate, its worst in a conference game.
The most confusing part of the 16-point margin of victory was the fact that Iowa State attempted 17 more field goals than Arizona. That was mitigated by the Wildcats doubling up on free throw attempts, but Iowa State should get a more favorable whistle at a neutral site.
Score prediction: Arizona 74 - Iowa State 73
🔥 Best Iowa State vs. Arizona player prop bet
Milan Momcilovic Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (-135)
Milan Momcilovic had one of his worst games of the season against Arizona, being held to five points for just the fifth time this season.
Against the Wildcats’ drop coverage in the first meeting, Iowa State posted its second lowest catch-and-shoot rate and second lowest rim total of the season. But this should be the game where the Cyclones use more shot creation off the dribble, as they use it at the 23rd percentile but rank in the 88th percentile in efficiency when doing so.
Momcilovic has eight or more 3-point attempts in four of the previous six games, so I’m looking for regression from the second-best 3-point shooter (49.2%) in the country.
This Over is juiced as to -155 (carrying 60.78% implied odds) at DraftKings, but I wouldn’t play it at anything more than -140, unless it's part of a parlay.
🏀 College basketball player props
If you're looking for more college basketball player props, my best college basketball predictions today have two more that you'll want to target
🚀 Iowa State vs. Arizona same-game parlay
Though I made Iowa State +4.5 a five-star top play, I am taking more of a risk by backing the Cyclones' moneyline as part of my same-game parlay. Because of that added risk, this three-leg parlay is a half-unit play instead of a full unit.
Despite Caesars having the steepest odds of any top sports betting site for Momcilovic's 3-pointers, it is still the preferred sportsbook with the only one offering a moneyline better than +154 and with the total as low as 143.
💵 Iowa State vs. Arizona SGP picks
- Iowa State ML (+158)
- Over 143 (-110)
- Milan Momcilovic Over 2.5 3-pointers made (-159)
Best odds: +702 via bet365 (.5u -> 3.51u)
💡 How I'm betting Iowa State vs. Arizona
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.
Based on my love for Iowa State in this game, I would not put anyone off backing its moneyline odds, which I did as part of my three-leg parlay. Keep in mind that the Cyclones have had to play one extra game in this tournament compared to Arizona, so I would avoid Iowa State's live moneyline odds if the Cyclones don't get out to a fast start.
📊 Live Iowa State vs. Arizona odds: Big 12 Tournament Semifinal
With 61% of the early point spread wagers, Arizona's line is slowly starting to creep back up to the -4.5 it opened at after several top sports betting sites saw the number bet down to -3.5.
Both teams are profitable to the Under, which is why it is somewhat surprising to see the total increase from 142.5 to as high as 143.5 at the majority of sportsbooks. That movement is supported by 57% of the wagers backing the Over.
📈 Iowa State vs. Arizona betting trends
| Iowa State | Statistic | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| 27-6 | W-L record | 30-2 |
| 20-13 | ATS record | 19-13 |
| 14-19 | O/U record | 15-17 |
| 3-2 | Last 5 games | 5-0 |
📺 How to watch Iowa State vs. Arizona: Big 12 Tournament Semifinal
- Date: Friday, March 13
- Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: T-Mobile Center (Kansas City, Mo.)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: ESPN+
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