🏀 Illinois vs. Maryland Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Picks Today (March 8)
No. 11 Illinois and Maryland play the first of three Big Ten games on Sunday's slate to close out the regular season. Tipoff from XFINITY Center in College Park, Md., is set for 3 p.m. ET (FOX), with Illinois listed as the 15.5-point betting favorite.
Though Illinois beat Maryland 89-70 at home on Jan. 21 and narrowly covered as the 18.5-point betting favorite, my Illinois vs. Maryland prediction expects a change in venue and differing motivational scenarios to cause this rematch to play out differently. In addition to a score prediction, I also offer my top player prop wager, which expects the Fighting Illini to force someone other than Maryland's hottest player to beat them.
🏀 Illinois vs. Maryland picks & odds today: March 8
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Bet type | Prediction | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game prediction | Maryland +15.5 (-110 via Caesars) | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Over/Under total | Over 145.5 (-110 via FanDuel) | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Player prop bet | Andre Mills Under 15.5 points (-115 via bet365) | 1u -> 0.87u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.69 units
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💰 Illinois vs. Maryland prediction & best bet
Maryland +15.5 (-110)
Few metrics will make a compelling case for Maryland to cover in this Big Ten mismatch, but this wager is more scenario-based with Illinois on the path to a double bye in the Big Ten Tournament.
The Terrapins did build as much as a five-point lead 11 minutes into the game in the first meeting against the Fighting Illini, while only committing five turnovers. I do not expect Illinois to have another plus-16 rebounding edge in this rematch, especially since Maryland ranks fourth in Big Ten play in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate.
Score prediction: Illinois 79, Maryland 69
🔥 Best Illinois vs. Maryland player prop bet
Andre Mills Under 15.5 points (-115)
Maryland star freshman Andre Mills had a team-high 16 points in just 17 minutes off the bench in the first meeting against Illinois, as he was an efficient 6-for-9 shooting with four made 3-pointers.
But Illinois was also missing its best perimeter defender (Kylan Boswell) in that matchup, and I expect Brad Underwood to use Boswell to harass Mills this time around.
Mills has clearly become the focal point of the Maryland offense since being re-inserted into the starting lineup nine games ago. He has scored in double figures in eight of those games, and averaged 21.6 points per game over his last five.
But Illinois is a disciplined defense that ranks in the top four in the league in adjusted defensive efficiency and 2-point percentage allowed, and Boswell lowers Mills’ ceiling for points considerably.
🚀 Illinois vs. Maryland same-game parlay
Illinois is one of the most profitable Big Ten teams to the Under, cashing it in 19 of 30 games. But its lack of motivation playing a conference bottom-dweller while looking ahead to the Big Ten Tournament makes pairing the Over a natural combination for motivation levels.
Maryland will need other scorers than Mills to step up to cash this same-game parlay.
💵 Illinois vs. Maryland SGP picks
- Maryland +15 (-115)
- Over 146.5 (-116)
- Andre Mills Under 15.5 points (-115)
Best odds: +551 via bet365 (1u -> 5.51u)
💡 How I'm betting Illinois vs. Maryland
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.
This is a game where live in-game betting could be more profitable than pre-game wagers, as the first 10 minutes should be telling about each team's motivation levels.
But Illinois' 57.9% cover percentage compared to its 63.6% cover rate in non-conference games provides confidence that Maryland can cover this big spread as my top play.
📊 Live Illinois vs. Maryland odds
The early betting action clearly sided with the home underdogs at DraftKings, who lowered its point spread from an opening number of 16.5 to 14.5. The market seems to be settling in to the +15 or +15.5 range, as bet365 saw its opening number tick up from 144.5 as its first movement.
FanDuel was the only one of the remaining best sports betting sites that had a total as low as 145.5, as the rest of the market was aligned with an O/U slightly higher at 146.5.
📈 Illinois vs. Maryland betting trends
| Illinois | Statistic | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| 23-7 | W-L record | 11-19 |
| 17-13 | ATS record | 13-17 |
| 11-19 | O/U record | 16-14 |
| 3-2 | Last 5 games | 1-4 |
📺 How to watch Illinois vs. Maryland
- Date: Sunday, March 8
- Tipoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: XFINITY Center (College Park, Md.)
- TV: FOX
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