🏀 Illinois State vs. Auburn Prediction & Picks: NIT Semifinal (April 2)

Illinois State is in its first NIT semifinal in school history, and crashed the party as the only non-No. 1 seed of the four remaining teams. It advanced as a No. 4 seed to take on the SEC’s Auburn, in a game that tips from Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis at 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). 

Instead of getting involved with the point spread that sees the Tigers as 6.5-point betting favorites, my Illinois State vs. Auburn prediction expects the Redbirds to control tempo, leading to a low-scoring affair.

🏀 Illinois State vs. Auburn picks & odds: NIT Semifinal

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

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🏆 Who will win Illinois State vs. Auburn?

I’m not taking anything away from the direction that the Illinois State program is heading, having won 20-plus games in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2010. But the Redbirds went just 1-3 SU against top-70 KenPom competition this year, and I expect Auburn will use its superior athleticism to book its spot in the NIT Championship.

Score prediction: Auburn 79, Illinois State 68

💰 Illinois State vs. Auburn prediction & best bet

Under 149.5 (-110)

Illinois State is a top-40 scoring defense that also ranks in the top-100 in seven other statistical categories, including the 12th-best defensive rebounding rate. The Redbirds know how to turn games into half-court grinds with the 222nd-slowest tempo, and their last defensive performance against Dayton was arguably their most impressive.

The Flyers entered the NIT quarterfinals coming off back-to-back 80-point performances, a point total they reached once since mid-December. But the Redbirds held them to just 0.88 points per possession on the road, and Auburn enters amid a streak of Unders cashing in four of its last five games.

🔥 Best Illinois State vs. Auburn team prop bet

Auburn team total Over 77.5 (-125)

Tahaad Pettiford is 11 points away from becoming the 41st player in school history to join the 1,000 points club. But with that feat likely to have Pettiford draw most of Illinois State’s defensive attention, other Tigers like fellow guard Kevin Overton should have a big bounce-back game.

Prior to scoring just seven points in the quarterfinal win over Nevada, Overton had averaged 22 points in the NIT, while shooting 53.8% from the floor and making half of his 3-point attempts. 

Overton has scored 20-plus points 10 times this season, but six of those occurrences have come within the last nine games. 

All Tigers should have plenty of shot volume with Auburn being plus-29 in rebounds over its opponents in the NIT thus far, and I am banking on its SEC athleticism to be too much for the Redbirds to handle.

🚀 Illinois State vs. Auburn same-game parlay

It may seem counterintuitive to be backing Auburn's team total Over but the full game Under. But my belief is that its athleticism will be too much for Illinois State to handle on both ends of the floor, especially leading to a dominant defensive performance. If it makes more sense, I wouldn't put anyone off swapping the Auburn team total leg of this parlay for the Under of 71.5 on Illinois State's team total.

💵 My betting record for college basketball

All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.

💡 How I'm betting Illinois State vs. Auburn: NIT strategy

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

If and when they become available, I would back Kevin Overton's player props up to 15.5 points. I'd stay away from any Illinois State player props, as it has had 11 players score in double figures, tied for the most of any MVC team. In addition, nine different players led the Redbirds in scoring this season, which is tied for the most of any D-I team.

Auburn's point spread is only a half-unit play for me since the Under is my top play, as a lower-scoring defensive battle would play more into Illinois State's hands.

📊 Live Illinois State vs. Auburn odds: NIT Semifinal

After opening at -6.5, Auburn touched as high as -7.5 across the market before returning back to the original number. Just 45% of the wagers are on the underdog Redbirds, which suggests more respected sharp money came in on them when the spread topped out at 7.5.

The total has a slightly bigger gap from 148.5 on the low end of the market at BetMGM and DraftKings to a high of 149.5 at FanDuel. The Over is the more popular side with 64% of the wagers, so perhaps FanDuel won't be the only sportsbook offering a line as high as 149.5 for long.

📈 Illinois State vs. Auburn betting trends

📺 How to watch Illinois State vs. Auburn: NIT Semifinal

• Date: Thursday, April 2
• Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Hinkle Fieldhouse (Indianapolis)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: ESPN+