🏀 Idaho vs. Houston Prediction & Picks: March Madness First Round (March 19)
No. 2 seed Houston looks to improve upon last year's March Madness runner-up finish, and that journey starts with a South Region game against No. 15 seed Idaho.
Its the last game of Thursday's 16-game NCAA Tournament slate to tip off, with a scheduled start time of 10:10 p.m. ET from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, airing on truTV. The Cougars are the 23.5-point betting favorite.
My Idaho vs. Houston prediction does not expect the Vandals to put up much of a fight. In addition to my Cougars point spread pick, I am adding a player prop wager to our March Madness predictions on a Vandals player who should be overmatched by Houston's physicality.
π Idaho vs. Houston picks & odds: March Madness First Round
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATS/ML pick | Houston -23.5 (-110 via DraftKings) | 1u -> 0.91u | βββ |
| O/U pick | Over 136 (-110 via Caesars) | 1u -> 0.91u | βββ |
| Player prop pick | Jackson Rasmussen Under 5.5 rebounds (-135 via bet365) | 1u -> 0.74u | ββββ |
Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.56 units
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π Who will win Idaho vs. Houston?
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Houston has by far the best national championship odds of any No. 2 seed, and it is not on upset alert against an Idaho team that played just one top-110 KenPom team all season.
Score prediction: Houston 83, Idaho 57
π° Idaho vs. Houston prediction & best bet
Houston -23.5 (-110)
At one point in the season, Idaho was sitting at 14-13, two games under .500 in the conference (6-8), and hadnβt won more than two games in a row.
The Vandals get next to nothing offensively inside the arc, ranking ninth among Big Sky teams in the percentage of points coming from 2-point range.
If they use their league-high 45.5% 3-point rate to catch fire from the perimeter, they could make this a game against Houston. But they'll have to get the Cougars defense moving, which Idaho, with its bottom-25 assist rate nationally, will struggle to do.
π₯ Best Idaho vs. Houston player prop bet
Jackson Rasmussen Under 5.5 rebounds (-135)
Many may think the Vandals have a chance to make this a tight contest because of what appears to be competitive rebounding metrics.
Idaho is the fifth-best defensive rebounding team in the country, but peeling back the layers reveals that the Big Sky ranked third-worst among all conferences in offensive rebounding rate.
The only team that the Vandals played that ranked inside the top-100 in offensive rebounding rate was Sam Houston State, and they were out-rebounded by 12 in that non-conference tilt.
Jackson Rasmussen only had a 6.1% offensive rebounding rate and an 11.4% defensive rebounding rate in five games against βTier Bβ opponents, per KenPom. The physicality against a Houston team will be too much to overcome to exceed the projected total for just the second time in the last five games.
π Idaho vs. Houston same-game parlay
Houston hasn't been the same elite defensive team it was under the last two seasons under Kelvin Sampson, "falling" out of the top-2 in adjusted defensive efficiency for the first time since 2024.
But it should have more than enough offensively to cover the big spread, while doing its part to cash the Over. The key piece is the Cougars hitting the offensive glass hard enough to keep Rasmussen under his projected rebounding total.
💵 Idaho vs. Houston SGP picks
- Houston -23.5 (-116)
- Over 136 (-116)
- Jackson Rasmussen Under 5.5 rebounds (-135)
Best odds: +504 via bet365 (1u -> 5.04u)
π΅ My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | +8.10 units β | 21.3% β |
| Game picks | 14-13 | -0.6 units β | -57.8% β |
| Player props | 8-3 | +8.70 units β | 79.1% β |
π‘ How I'm betting Idaho vs. Houston: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
Though the Rasmussen player prop is my only 4-star wager, all three are one-unit plays despite likely being on the public side with Houston.
Kelvin Sampson is 6-2 ATS in his last eight Round of 64 matchups, based on March Madness betting trends, while the Over has cashed in six of Houston's nine neutral site games this year.
π Live Idaho vs. Houston odds: March Madness First Round
There was a bit of reverse line movement at BetMGM, suggesting sharp action, as Houston dipped from -24.5 to -23.5. But that could also have been due to having a different number from the rest of the market, as the best sports betting sites that opened at -22.5 were bet up to -23.5.
The ceiling for the Over seems to be 136.5, as every top sports betting site that hit that number has been bet down to 136, while never reaching 137.
π Idaho vs. Houston betting trends
| Idaho | Statistic | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| 21-14 | Record | 28-6 |
| 16-16 | ATS record | 16-18 |
| 13-19 | O/U record | 14-20 |
| 145th | KenPom ranking | 5th |
| 108.8 (176th) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 124.9 (14th) |
| 107.3 (136th) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 91.4 (5th) |
πΊ How to watch Idaho vs. Houston: March Madness First Round
- Date: Thursday, March 19
- Tipoff: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City)
- TV: truTV
- Streaming: Max
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