🏀 Howard vs. Michigan Prediction & Picks: March Madness First Round (March 19)
After No. 16 seed Howard won its first-ever NCAA Tournament game in a contest that went down to the final shot, it looks to continue its March Madness run against No. 1 seed Michigan in a Midwest Region battle. The Wolverines are a 31.5-point betting favorite, and the game from KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y., tips at 7:10 p.m. ET, airing on CBS.
My Howard vs. Michigan prediction, as part of our March Madness predictions, expects the Bison to put up a fight, even if it faces a big game from AP First Team All-American Wolverine Yaxel Lendeborg.
π Howard vs. Michigan picks & odds: March Madness First Round
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATS/ML pick | Howard +31.5 (-110 via DraftKings) | 1u -> 0.91u | ββββ |
| O/U pick | Over 150.5 (-110 via FanDuel) | 0.5u -> 0.46u | ββ |
| Player prop pick | Yaxel Lendeborg Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (-120 via bet365) | 1u -> 0.83u | βββ |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.2 units
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π Who will win Howard vs. Michigan?
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Since only two No. 16 seeds have ever pulled off upsets of No. 1 seeds, I don't expect Howard to become the third. But that doesn't mean the Bison cannot stay within this large point spread.
Score prediction: Michigan 90, Howard 63
π° Howard vs. Michigan prediction & best bet
Howard +31.5 (-110)
Howard deploys full-court pressure at the ninth-highest rate among all NCAA Tournament teams. The fact that it had a 98th percentile Press Defensive Rating suggests it should press Michigan at a high rate, since itβs without its backup point guard.
At the very least, Howard made Michigan devote more time planning for a press with how effective it was against UMBC.
The Retrievers also entered the First Four committing 13.3 fouls per game (second-fewest in the NCAA). The Bison got UMBC to commit 20, which speaks to their attacking mentality entering a game against D-Iβs best defense in Michigan.
π₯ Best Howard vs. Michigan player prop bet
Yaxel Lendeborg Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (-120)
Yaxel Lendeborgβs inside-outside versatility made him difficult to stop all season.
Lendeborg is amid one of his best shooting streaks of the season, making 13 of his last 21 3-point attempts (61.9%), and hitting multiple 3-pointers in four of the last five games in that span.
This wager comes with the expectation that Howard will play primarily zone defense out of its pressure looks. That gives the forward opportunities to leak out into the corners off the press break, and drift to the perimeter against the zone to open things inside for 7-foot-3 Aday Mara.
Either way, it may not be the best idea to play much zone against Michigan, as it ranked ninth in points per zone possessions offense (min. 75 possessions).
π Howard vs. Michigan same-game parlay
This same-game parlay comes with the mindset that Howard isn't going to sit back and play tentatively against Michigan, instead opting to press and create its usual havoc. When FanDuel releases player props for 3-pointers, I will look to see if I can save any juice by backing Lendeborg's Over, as I'd also save some money in paying the standard -110 juice for the point spread and total as well.
A three-leg parlay with all legs of -110 odds would pay out +596.
💵 Howard vs. Michigan SGP picks
- Howard +31.5 (-116)
- Over 150.5 (-116)
- Yaxel Lendeborg Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (-120)
Best odds: +536 via bet365 (1u -> 5.36u)
π΅ My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-20 | +6.12 units β | 13.9% β |
| Game picks | 12-12 | -1.16 units β | -11.0% β |
| Player props | 10-4 | +9.72 units β | 69.4% β |
π‘ How I'm betting Howard vs. Michigan: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
Howard +31.5 and the Over on Lendeborg's 3-pointers are more confident plays than the full game Over, which is why the latter is just a half-unit play. Howard turning this game into a track meet would make it much more likely that the Over cashes. But I am worried about the Wolverines' top-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency and their ability to negate the Bison's dribble penetration, which was so effective against UMBC in the First Four.
π Live Howard vs. Michigan odds: March Madness First Round
In the first 12 hours after these lines were posted, there was no line movement at any of the best sports betting sites. But those sports books did open differently, ranging from Michigan -30.5 to -31.5.
The total has a similar one-point game between a low of 150.5 and a high of 151.5. Early wagers are 62% in support of the Over, so those that are at 150.5 may come up and align with the rest of the market before tip.
π Howard vs. Michigan betting trends
| Howard | Statistic | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| 24-10 | Record | 31-3 |
| 22-8 | ATS record | 15-19 |
| 13-17 | O/U record | 13-21 |
| 205th | KenPom ranking | 3rd |
| 104.1 (268th) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 126.6 (8th) |
| 107.0 (129th) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 89.0 (1st) |
πΊ How to watch Howard vs. Michigan: March Madness First Round
- Date: Thursday, March 19
- Tipoff: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Location: KeyBank Center (Buffalo, N.Y.)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: Paramount+
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