🏀 Hofstra vs. Alabama Prediction & Picks: March Madness First Round (March 20)
No. 4 Alabama enters this tournament with the highest-scoring offense in the nation, but I'm very concerned for it against No. 13 Hofstra's 19th-ranked scoring defense.
My best Hofstra vs. Alabama prediction for Friday's 3:15 p.m. ET (truTV/March Madness Live) game at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Fla., focuses on Hofstra's ability to keep pace with, and possibly even slow down, Alabama's offense. Alabama is a 12.5-point betting favorite in the March Madness first-round game.
For more NCAA Tournament picks, check out our March Madness predictions.
🏀 Hofstra vs. Alabama picks & odds: March Madness Round 1
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hofstra +12.5 | -104 via FanDuel | 1.5u -> 1.44u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Under 159.5 | -110 via bet365 | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐ |
| Preston Edmead Over 2.5 made 3-pointers | -112 via bet365 | 1.5u -> 1.34u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: 3.69 units
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🏆 Who will win Hofstra vs. Alabama?
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
I'm taking Alabama to win this game by six points because, while Hofstra will give Alabama everything they can handle, the Crimson Tide offense is the most difficult to stop for a full 60 minutes in the nation.
Score prediction: Alabama 80, Hofstra 74
💰 Hofstra vs. Alabama prediction & best bet
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
Hofstra +12.5 (-104)
Alabama is averaging 91.7 points per game, the most in the nation, but the Crimson Tide rank 67th in adjusted defensive rating according to KenPom, which is a big reason they're just 13-18 ATS this season. Alabama may also be without Aden Holloway, its second-leading scorer, on Friday.
Hofstra ranks 33rd in 3-point field goal percentage (36.8%), which could be a huge problem for an Alabama defense that ranks 169th in opponent 3-point field goal percentage. This excellent shooting, combined with the nation's 19th-best scoring defense (66.1 points per game), has allowed the Pride to go 21-11 ATS this season.
🏀 More March Madness picks for Friday
I back Wright State +18.5 (-110) with my Wright State vs. Virginia prediction and Cal Baptist +14.5 (-110) with my Cal Baptist vs. Kansas prediction.
🔥 Best Hofstra vs. Alabama player prop bet
Our March Madness betting trends break down which coaches have been the most profitable in the NCAA Tournament.
Preston Edmead Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (-112)
As I've already highlighted, Alabama struggles defending the 3-point line, which is why I expect a huge game from Hofstra's leading 3-point shooter. Edmead has made a team-high 90 3-pointers, knocking down 38.3% of his attempts from beyond the arc.
Edmead has also made multiple 3-pointers in five of his last six games, so he enters the tournament shooting well. He's attempted at least six 3-pointers in 19 of his last 23 games, and should put up plenty of shots in this game with his team attempting to keep pace with the nation's highest-scoring team.
🚀 Hofstra vs. Alabama same-game parlay
While Hofstra could probably keep pace with Alabama for the majority of this game, the only way the Pride are covering is if the defense shows up. That's why I'm backing Hofstra +12.5 and Under 159.5. To me, those two bets go hand-in-hand. And considering how integral Edmead's 3-point shooting has been to Hofstra's success this season, there's a lot to love about him in a high-scoring game against a bad 3-point defense.
💵 Hofstra vs. Alabama SGP picks
- Hofstra +12.5
- Under 159.5
- Preston Edmead Over 2.5 made 3-pointers
Best odds: +590 via bet365 (1u -> 5.9u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-14 | +1.09 units ✅ | +3.6% ✅ |
| Game picks | 6-8 | -1.83 units ❌ | -9.6% ❌ |
| Player props | 2-2 | -0.87 units ❌ | -13.3% ❌ |
| Parlays | 2-4 | +3.79 units ✅ | +75.7% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Hofstra vs. Alabama: March Madness strategy
Alabama's offense terrifies me, which is why, despite feeling pretty confident that the total of 159.5 is way too high, I can't bring myself to risk more than one unit. Hofstra has all the components to pull an upset, but I'm only risking 1.5 units on it to cover in case Alabama dominates late. I'll also wager 1.5 units on Edmead to have a solid game, because whether Hofstra keeps it close or gets blown out, Edmead and his teammates will be shooting a lot of threes to try to stay in the game.
For more on this game, check out the latest March Madness betting trends.
📊 Live Hofstra vs. Alabama odds: March Madness First Round
Alabama opened as a 10.5-point favorite, but the public is favoring the SEC team, and the spread has grown to 12.5. I'd love to see this spread continue to grow, as Hofstra becomes a lot more enticing at +14.5 or +15.5. As for the total, it opened at 162.5, and it's dropped three points. I expect it to keep dropping before tipoff, as this is an incredibly high number no matter who is on the court.
📈 Hofstra vs. Alabama betting trends
| Hofstra | Statistic | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| 24-10 | Record | 23-9 |
| 21-11 | ATS record | 13-18 |
| 17-15 | O/U record | 16-14-1 |
| 87th | KenPom ranking | 18th |
| 114.6 (89th) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 129.0 (3rd) |
| 105.1 (95th) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 103.3 (67th) |
📺 How to watch Hofstra vs. Alabama: March Madness First Round
- Date: Friday, March 20
- Tipoff: 3:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Benchmark International Arena (Tampa, Fla.)
- TV: truTV
- Streaming: March Madness Live
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