🏀 High Point vs. Wisconsin Prediction & Picks: March Madness Round 1 (March 19)

No. 5 Wisconsin hasn't advanced past the first weekend of the NCAA tournament since 2017. No. 12 High Point, meanwhile, has won 14 straight games and gained tourney experience with a first-round loss last year.

That all sets up for an interesting March Madness Round 1 matchup on Thursday that could be closer than anticipated. The Badgers are a 10-point betting favorite, but my High Point vs. Wisconsin prediction is backing the Panthers as part of our March Madness predictions.

Tipoff from Moda Center in Portland, Ore., is set for 1:50 p.m. ET (TBS).

🏀 High Point vs. Wisconsin picks & odds: March Madness Round 1

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.14 units

🏆 Who will win High Point vs. Wisconsin?

See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

I predict that Wisconsin will defeat High Point, but it will be closer than expected, making it a potentially fun game to watch during Thursday's early window. I have the Badgers winning by a couple of possessions, hitting enough shots to avoid the scare.

Score prediction: Wisconsin 84, High Point 78

💰 High Point vs. Wisconsin prediction & best bet

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

High Point +10 (-110)

For the second straight year, High Point didn't get its best draw as a dangerous double-digit seed. The Panthers have a frenetic style of play built on forcing turnovers, as they rank fifth in the nation in defensive turnover rate.

Last year, they faced Purdue's veteran backcourt, which committed only seven turnovers in a 12-point win. This time around, Wisconsin is third in the country in turnover rate on offense.

As was the case last year, you want to back the team with superior talent in a battle of strength vs. strength. The difference is that we are getting +10 for High Point this year, compared to a closing spread of 7.5 against Purdue.

🔥 Best High Point vs. Wisconsin player prop bet

Our March Madness betting trends break down which coaches have been the most profitable in the NCAA Tournament.

Rob Martin Under 16.5 points (-130)

One thing worth remembering about the Panthers is that they rotate through their roster more than most teams. Nobody is playing more than 69.5% of the team's minutes this year, including High Point guard Rob Martin, who has a minutes rate of 66.3%.

Martin is averaging 15.3 points per game and taking the most shots for the Panthers. But he's only cleared this scoring line in 14 of his 33 games this year due to his inconsistent playing time and 5-foot-10 stature.

I think Wisconsin has the personnel to contain Martin, which is why this line is 15.5 at most shops. I'll take Caesars' value of 16.5, but I'd play it down to 15.5.

🚀 High Point vs. Wisconsin same-game parlay

Caesars is the only shop to play my High Point vs. Wisconsin parlay, as it offers the best value on the Panthers' spread and the Under on Martin's scoring line. While not all three legs are correlated, I do think that helped increase the payout to +425. Still, this is only worth a sprinkle, as I think this game has a lot more variance than most Round 1 matchups.

💡 How I'm betting High Point vs. Wisconsin: March Madness strategy

The theme of this year's March Madness is that the good teams are so much better, and there's likely to be fewer upsets as a result. This comes after a chalky NCAA tournament last year that saw favorites cover at a high rate.

Between those two aspects, the spreads in some of these matchups are as large as ever. My general theory is that it might be an overreaction, and there could be some additional value on underdogs in Round 1.

This game is the perfect example of that because High Point disappointed as a trendy underdog last year, and now we are getting an additional 2.5 points of spread value. I'm taking it, as I risk about 2.5 units in what could be one of the more entertaining first-round matchups.

📊 Live High Point vs. Wisconsin odds: March Madness Round 1

Wisconsin opened as a 10.5-point favorite on FanDuel, while the total has dropped from 165.5 to 164.5.

Betting splits this early in the week can often be a bit misguided, as casual bettors are typically wagering closer to tipoff. That means I'd expect Wisconsin's spread and the Over to generate more action closer by Thursday, though my preference is on the underdog and the Under.

📈 High Point vs. Wisconsin betting trends

📺 How to watch High Point vs. Wisconsin: March Madness Round 1

• Date: Thursday, March 19
• Tipoff: 1:50 p.m. ET
• Location: Moda Center (Portland, Ore.)
• TV: TBS
• Streaming: TBS app